Government's proposals for phasing out the fuel subsidy, regulating the gaming sector and other revenue-raising measures, as well as public/private sector projects and some job creation are expected to be among the mid-year review statement being delivered by Finance Minister Colm Imbert this afternoon.
Following last year's Budget, where the cost of two types of fuel was hiked and the cost of food was increased in February by a new VAT regime, there is a measure of anxiety over the impact of Government's plans to deal with the subsidy, which Imbert has confirmed will be dealt with in the review.
At yesterday's post-Cabinet media briefing at the Office of the Prime Minister, St Clair, Energy Minister Nicole Olivierre was tight-lipped about whether the mid-year review of the subsidy could impact, for instance, the price of cooking gas.
She was asked the question while speaking about expected additions from extension of two production-sharing gas supply contracts she said would help to offset the impending natural gas shortage.
Olivierre acknowledged that some people may be anxious about the fuel subsidy issue but she said the review statement by Imbert was just 24 hours away and she did not want to pre-empt it. She said she could not comment on the queries about the cooking gas price.
However, she said once Government prepared T&T for removal of the fuel subsidy it could be achieved without distress.
On how the fuel subsidy issue might affect transport, Minister in the Attorney General's Office/Legal Affairs, Stuart Young, said the Ministers of Finance, Planning and Works would be making statements in Parliament in the "very near future" on mass transport.
Imbert's mid-year review is expected to outline T&T's financial position following the People's National Movement administration's first ($63 billion) Budget of October 2016 - which was subsequently adjusted due to falling oil prices, as well as its direction on various areas after the last six months of Budget measures. He had promised the review in the Budget.
Imbert, at a media briefing on the ArcelorMittal closure two weeks ago, had said his intention was "to have a national discussion" on phasing out the fuel subsidy and would start that discussion with today's mid-year review statement.
He was quoted as saying he intended to "start the ball rolling" to remove the subsidy by first putting the proposal to the public for feedback from April 9.
He also said then he would start telling T&T what the Government had in mind concerning the way "we are going to be dealing with the fuel subsidy and the timing of the phasing out of the fuel subsidy."
Imbert had recounted that he indicated in the Budget he had said Government would have to talk to the population first. That is expected to be done via consultations, starting today.
Also expected to be announced are plans for gaming sector regulation laws, discussions on which took place up to recently with some stakeholders, following consideration of legislative moves to institute taxes on certain machines most popularly used in the sector, the T&T Guardian learned.
Sources said yesterday property tax schedules might be expected but could not confirm whether other revenue-raising measures would be levied. Updates on the depreciation of the T&T dollar, plus reviews of several sectors and status reports, are also anticipated.
Apart from Imbert, several others ministers are expected to speak on job creation and public/private partnership ventures.
Yesterday, however, Opposition MP Dr Bhoe Tewarie, who will reply to the review alongside Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar and others, said documents for today's Parliament session showed nothing about any policy change, new fiscal measures/taxes, cuts or revenue measures.
On Wednesday, Government varied 2016 Budget allocations among 11 ministries, with decreases in Education, Health, Housing, Sport and Social Development and increases for the Prime Minister's Office, National Security, Labour, Community Development, Planning and the Parliament.
At yesterday's briefing, Energy Minister Olivierre revealed additional gas supplies expected to enter the system soon could offset the impending gas shortage.
She said Government had approved extensions of applications for production-sharing contracts from BHP and another company. This would increase supplies by 255 million standard cubic feet daily and 80m cubic feet daily respectively, she said.
As well, Young said the steel giant's closure, which Government was monitoring closely, would allow a certain amount of electricity supplies to return to the grid, since ArcelorMittal was the country's single biggest power customer.
The 2016 budget numbers
In delivering the 2016 Budget on October 5, 2015, Finance Minister Colm Imbert sought the Parliament's approval to spend $63.04 billion.
This was based on total revenue of $60.28 billion, generating a fiscal deficit of $2.76 billion, or 1.7 per cent of T&T's projected 2016 GDP (gross domestic product).
Of the revenue of $60.28 billion, Imbert estimated that $54.83 billion would come from non-energy revenue and $5.44 billion from energy revenue.
Energy revenues–which are depressed in 2016 because of the capital allowances to the energy sector–were based on an oil price of US$45 a barrel and a mix of gas prices, including Henry Hub of US$2.75 per mmBtu and Indonesia of US$8.00 per mmBtu.
Imbert estimated that $41.6 billion would come from current revenue and that he would need to raise an additional $18.6 billion in revenue from a mix of revenue measures of $5.2 billion and $13.4 billion one-time resources including asset sales.
The largest allocation of the 2016 budget went to national security, which received $10.81 billion.
The $5.2 billion in revenue measures was expected to come from:
�2 Adjustments to the Value-Added Tax (VAT) system
�2 Enhanced tax collection and compliance
�2 The reform of the fuel subsidy (super gasoline and diesel increased by 15 per cent)
�2 Increase in the Business Levy
�2 Increase in the Green Fund
�2 Phase in of a property tax regime
�2 Introduce tax regime on the gaming industry
The $13.4 billion from the sale of assets programme and the receipt of extraordinary dividends was expected to come from:
�2 Partial repayment by Clico of monies owed to the Government
�2 Proceeds from the TTNGL IPO
�2 Capital repayment by the power plant TGU
�2 Dividends from state-owned National Gas Company
However, after international energy prices tumbled, Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley in December mandated Imbert to get ministries and public bodies to reduce their operational expenditures by 7 per cent, which would have knocked $4.41 billion off the original budget, if successful.