July 17 will be the date—if all goes well—when the country’s borders finally reopen. By that time, citizens would have endured 483 days of only cargo and humanitarian flights, with a devastating impact on businesses, particularly in the travel and tourism sectors.
The border closure was one of the most controversial measures implemented in the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly because of the exemptions system, which gave power to the Minister of National Security to control when and how citizens could return home.
But as contentious as that arrangement has been, it was not the most debilitating aspect of the border closure. Indeed, the nation has not yet seen the full impact of that containment strategy which has been felt more widely in the economy than could have been anticipated when it took effect from midnight on March 22, 2020.
The grim state of one of the biggest casualties of the border closure, Caribbean Airlines (CAL)), only became known in the past few days.
The airline, which has embarked on a restructuring exercise, posted first-quarter losses of $172.7 million and a 75 per cent decline in revenue compared to the corresponding period last year.
Officials of the airline are expecting a drastically reduced scale of demand even after the opening of the borders and are reducing staff, routes and the size of its fleet.
But CAL’s troubles are just the tip of the iceberg. Activities in the country’s already struggling tourism industry dropped to almost zero during the period of the closure and the very limited prospects for domestic tourism dried up with tighter public health restrictions, particularly in the last few months.
This has serious implications for plans to develop the tourism industry as one of the main pillars of economic diversification.
Not a word has been heard for more than a year about plans to develop a unique twin-island tourism product with Tobago positioned as the leisure centre and Trinidad as the conference and events destination. There had been plenty of talk but not much in the way of implementation before COVID-19 came along to halt what little had been done.
But the truth is that for the hotels and other accommodations that have been mothballed for more than a year, as well as all the associated businesses and services brought to a halt when T&T’s borders closed, July 17 will not be a magical date for the start of a turnaround. Far from it.
Since no dates have been announced for the lifting of the State of Emergency and the easing of public health restrictions, a return to the normalcy of the pre-pandemic days is still some way off.
Also, the Delta variant, which originated in India, has now been detected in more than 80 countries, posing a threat to any dreams of unfettered foreign travel once the borders reopen.
So even weeks and months beyond July 17, the country may remain in a holding pattern, carefully plotting a course toward herd immunity and life without pandemic limitations.
For many businesses and activities building back starts at zero and will be a painful process even with open borders.