The general elections have come and gone and while at time of writing the United National Congress (UNC) was still disputing its outcome, the general feeling is that the size of victories are unlikely to be overturned by recounts.
I live in the Diego Martin West constituency and even though historically this has been a safe seat, and the Prime Minister was seeking re-election, the number of times that the campaign passed in my area with the huge music trucks, like many, I too am relieved it is all over.
But the results point to a country that remains divided, that is unconvinced by the Rowley administration and does not see the UNC as a viable option.
It is why this victory of the PNM is not a mandate to govern as it did in the preceding five years, and the defeat of the UNC is a mandate to change its approach to politics.
Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley has already signalled a return to austerity measures saying the next two years will be difficult, but promising that if the country stays the course it will lead to a better tomorrow.
Rowley told the country: “The next two years will be very difficult but during that period we are required to do things to be in a better position to enjoy a brighter future. ”
He added, “The government will play a role and build an economy in such a way that all of us are lifted by the rising tide and say mother Trinidad has been good.”
According to Rowley his priorities will first be to put together a Cabinet and then to prepare the 2021 annual budget.
This government has to do better than it did in the last five years.
It has to frontally address the challenges that make it a virtual nightmare to do business in this country. The former Minister of Trade reminded me of the student who talked a lot in class and whenever it came to the exams performed poorly.
Under her watch the country’s Ease of Doing business got progressively worse and the Rowley administration has run out of time and excuses. The promised digitisation will certainly help but a commitment from the government to work with the private sector in getting the economy right is what is needed. The high marks the government got for its initial handling of the COVID19 crisis was because it showed a willingness to work with and listen to the private sector and the technocrats and it will do well to have a closer working relationship with business, civil society and labour if it is to have any hope of a successful term.
The results do not lie and its clear the PNM has lost ground among its supporters. While enough felt the need to vote against the UNC there seems to be a feeling on the ground, among many of the party’s supporters, that they have been ignored for five years and the government only seemed to remember them when its time for voting.
In the heartland of the PNM, from Laventille/Morvant to Laventille West to Port-of-Spain south and in the pockets of many other urban constituencies there is an underbelly of hopelessness, a culture of being a victim of the wider society and not part of the T&T we hope for.
It is a situation that cannot be left for the economy to get better in two years. Rowley has to keep his word to the young urban black youths to work with them to find solutions so that their lives are not destined to be one of poverty or crime and those areas must be lifted up by better opportunity, better infrastructure and a creation of hope.
I warned the country that it cannot ignore the recent riots that occurred in Port-of-Spain and even though the Minister of National Security tried to convince us that there was a plot, as expected, there was not a shred of evidence presented, no arrests made and hopes that the country would forget about it and move on.
It may no longer be a news item, but the fact that the government ignored for five years the urban decay that took place and this from a party, that as the results show, gets it strength from urban Trinidad.
So finding meaningful solutions to that problem must be a priority for the government because failure has economic consequences in terms of the cost of crime to every citizen and business operating in this country.
There will be no honeymoon period for this administration because the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy has been so devastating that even the powerful United States has been brought to its knees and T&T is living on borrowed time and borrowed money.
The government has to move swiftly to deal with the issue of crime that continues to add risks to business and increase the cost of doing business.
For decades the energy sector has been the driving force behind the economy and things have changed dramatically in the international environment.
Gas is ubiquitous and that has led to the softening of global natural gas prices. This has had a deleterious effect on earnings from Atlantic LNG. Crude remained over-supplied and even though OPEC and other major producers have cut production, the COVID-19 has caused a major fall in demand and led to the commodity hovering just above US$40 per barrel.
In T&T natural gas production remains short of what would be required if all the petrochemical plants come back up and its curtailment is a problem the downstream sector has had to grapple with for the last six years.
You add to this the relatively high costs of natural gas in T&T compared to US shale gas and you see why the local petrochemical sector’s competitiveness has been eroded. The government has hired consultants to look at the entire value chain and one hopes the work is completed soon and workable solutions found to protect the public purse and the downstream sector.
T&T is facing one of its most challenging times and we need to ensure that everyone is on board. It is why the property tax must be implemented, the revenue authority brought on stream and citizens and businesses pay their taxes.
The Government must address pension reform and health reform. Transfers and subsidies must be rationalised and the issue of the declining participation rate in the economy addressed.
We need the government to make the fundamental changes that will make this economy more efficient, that will lead to investments in agriculture, technology, tourism and culture as we move to diversify away from energy, while maximising the performance of the energy sector.
We need big, achievable visions for the country which will be pursued even if it is for 15 to 20 years.
The Prime Minister has a hard task of leading a divided country towards national goals and the first thing he has to do is appoint a new Finance Minister who must not be Colm Imbert.
The selection of a Cabinet is the prerogative of the Prime Minister but be sure Dr Rowley, if you make the error of returning with Mr Imbert you will make an already hard task seem insurmountable.