The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave in the far southwestern Caribbean Sea for tropical development. On its current trajectory, this system is already well west of Trinidad and Tobago and is not forecast to affect the Eastern Caribbean.
The NHC’s 2:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook gave this wave a near zero per cent chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 20 per cent chance of development over the next five days. This wave still has to move across Central America this week until it emerges in the Bay of Campeche, the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico, by the weekend, where conditions will become more favourable.
There are two tropical waves well east of Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday afternoon, but the development of both waves is not expected at this time.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far
At first glance, the Atlantic Basin hasn’t been extremely quiet. On average, for the period 1991-2020, the fourth named storm doesn’t arrive until August 13th, and the first hurricane doesn’t form until August 11th. By those standards, with three named storms but no hurricanes as of August 16th, the Atlantic season is just now starting to slip behind climatology.
However, none of this year’s three Atlantic storms packed much punch. Tropical Storms Alex and Bonnie each developed after unusually long periods as potential tropical cyclones (56 and 88 hours, respectively). Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, which became Bonnie, tracked over Trinidad and Tobago on June 28th, prompting officials to place the country under an orange-level Tropical Storm Warning. The other disturbance that eventually gave birth to Alex dumped torrential rains in Cuba, took four lives, and drenched South Florida. Then, short-lived Tropical Storm Colin spent its entire 24-hour life as a minimal tropical storm near and just inland from the coast of South and North Carolina.
As of August 16th, the Atlantic had mustered only 3.25 named storm days (the total period with at least one named storm in progress), compared to an average at this point of 12.9, according to the Colorado State University.
What the Seasonal Forecasts Show
An above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season is still forecast, but the absolute number of storms in two of the most closely watched outlooks has decreased in their latest updates.
Although 2022 has not yet spawned any Atlantic hurricanes, the season typically picks up in August and peaks in September, and several factors that augur an active season still apply. A weak but persistent La Niña event continues across the eastern tropical Pacific. Odds now favour La Niña (which supports Atlantic hurricane development) remaining in place throughout the rest of the year.
NOAA’s revised Atlantic hurricane outlook, updated on August 4th, still has the probability of a more active season than the 1991-2020 average at 60%, compared to 65% in the May outlook. NOAA is now calling for 14-20 named storms, down from 14-21, 6-10 of these becoming hurricanes, which is the same as the previous outlook, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes, down from 3-6.
The United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) director Deanne Criswell said, “although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual, and we, therefore, cannot afford to let our guard down.”
Similarly, the Colorado State University has tempered its July outlook, with its latest August numbers now calling for 18 names storms, 8 becoming hurricanes, and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. These are down from 20, 10, and 5, respectively, issued on July 7th.
Reporter: Kalain Hosein