Fran­cis Joseph

Will it be de­ja vu for Prime Min­is­ter Patrick Man­ning? His de­ci­sion to call a snap elec­tion halfway in­to his gov­ern­ment's term in of­fice brings back mem­o­ries of 1995 when he called a snap elec­tion and end­ed up in the Op­po­si­tion. This time, the sit­u­a­tion is dif­fer­ent as his gov­ern­ment is sad­dled with mount­ing al­le­ga­tions of cor­rup­tion and a run­away crime sit­u­a­tion. Man­ning, who was one of three PNM can­di­dates who sur­vived the NAR land­slide in 1986, emerged Prime Min­is­ter in 1991 when his par­ty won the gen­er­al elec­tion with 21 out of the 36 seats. In 1995, trou­ble hit the Gov­ern­ment when then Min­is­ter of Trade and In­dus­try, Ken­neth Val­ley, clashed with Speak­er of the House, Oc­c­ah Sea­paul.

Val­ley, whose state­ment "you can run but you can't hide" be­came a house­hold phrase, was sus­pend­ed on Ju­ly 28, 1995, for six months. Val­ley chal­lenged the sus­pen­sion in the Port-of-Spain High Court but the re­la­tion­ship be­tween Sea­paul and the Gov­ern­ment de­te­ri­o­rat­ed. A lim­it­ed state of emer­gency was called around Mary Street, St Clair, where Sea­paul lived, and she was placed un­der house ar­rest for sev­er­al days. This up­set Sea­paul's broth­er, Ralph Maraj, who was Mem­ber of Par­lia­ment for San Fer­nan­do West for the PNM. Maraj re­signed from the PNM. Re­al­is­ing he had lost faith with his par­ty and with num­bers dwin­dling, Man­ning called an elec­tion on No­vem­ber 6.

Did he catch the UNC off-guard with the snap elec­tion? The UNC in­creased its tal­ly from 13 to 17 seats, while the PNM dropped from 21 to 17. The NAR re­tained its two To­ba­go seats with ANR Robin­son and Pamela Nichol­son. Robin­son signed an agree­ment with Bas­deo Pan­day, leader of the UNC, and the UNC-NAR ac­com­mo­da­tion formed the Gov­ern­ment, with Pan­day be­com­ing Prime Min­is­ter and rel­e­gat­ing Man­ning to Op­po­si­tion Leader for the sec­ond time. Dur­ing the term, two PNM MPs, Dr Vin­cent Lasse and Dr Ru­pert Grif­fith, crossed the floor and be­came UNC Min­is­ters, even de­plet­ing the PNM to 15 seats. In 1997, Robin­son be­came Pres­i­dent. In 2000, the UNC won the elec­tions 19 to 17 and got a sec­ond term in of­fice. But, in-fight­ing with­in the UNC saw Ramesh Lawrence Ma­haraj, Ralph Maraj and Trevor Su­dama be­ing sacked and Pan­day called a gen­er­al elec­tion with­in one year in of­fice.

In 2001, PNM and UNC end­ed with 18 seats each and when there was no agree­ment, Robin­son, as Pres­i­dent, hand­ed over pow­er to Man­ning. Un­able to gov­ern with 18 seats, Man­ning called an elec­tion in 2002, and won 20 to 16. He has been in pow­er ever since. This time around, the PNM has 26 seats to the UNC 15. With the al­le­ga­tions of cor­rup­tion as­so­ci­at­ed with Ude­cott, the run­away crime sit­u­a­tion and pos­si­bly poor gov­er­nance, Man­ning de­cid­ed to go to the polls 30 months ear­ly, hop­ing that the Op­po­si­tion par­ties, the UNC and COP, are di­vid­ed and in dis­ar­ray.