The entire world must surely have felt relieved by the decision of US President Donald Trump to hold off on his threat to bomb Iran into a previous century.
It is, of course, arguable whether his stated intention amounted to a bluff aimed at forcing the Iranian government to come to an agreement or face the reality of America’s deadly and destructive firepower.
Or indeed, he may have decided to step back from carrying out a promised action which could not only have ricocheted but also proved destructive to the US in the long run in multiple ways, including damaging its reputation as a reasonable force in the exercise of its enormous military power?
On the other side of the ceasefire, the Iranian government has, in theory, saved the country from the promised onslaught of major bombing.
And even if it were possible that Iran could have delivered a few devastating blows to US installations in the region, and mounted heavy attacks on Israel, those achievements would be minor compared to the scale of destruction to the country and the loss of life that had been threatened.
One view is that President Trump’s decision represents a realisation that he was losing the bluffing game and therefore had to withdraw and seek a more reasonable solution to end the war - one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil to flow and prevent further damage to the global economy, including the inevitable surge in oil prices beyond the US$100 per barrel mark.
From here on, much will depend on the elements of the peace plans proposed by both the US and Iran.
It can be expected that there will be extreme opening positions presented to the Pakistani peacemakers, who must be commended for bringing the two sides to the table.
Among the proposals reported so far are Iran’s desire for a permanent ceasefire - effectively an end to the war against it by the US and Israel - and for those countries to fund at least a portion of the rebuilding that will be required.
From the US perspective, the immediate requirement is for Iran to reopen the Strait to all shipping and, inevitably, to abandon all attempts to develop nuclear weapons.
“We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate,” President Trump has been quoted as saying.
This is a very encouraging statement, indicating his willingness to end the war, having already said the US has achieved much of its objectives.
One very worrying feature of any plan for long-lasting peace must surely be whether Israel will be willing to accept an agreement with Iran still standing in relatively strong condition, notwithstanding the loss of leaders and serious blows to its infrastructure.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is often criticised for signing peace agreements while continuing military engagements.
Already, he has made it clear that the peace does not extend to his army’s continued bombing of Lebanon. Is he also willing to relinquish Lebanese lands seized by his forces as a so-called buffer zone, reportedly for Israel’s protection?
President Trump will ultimately be responsible for ensuring the Israeli Prime Minister’s compliance.
