Monday night’s declaration by Tobago House of Assembly (THA) Chief Secretary Farley Augustine that January 12, 2026, will be the date for the next THA election signals that the island has entered a decisive political moment - one that will test not only the performance of the ruling Tobago People’s Party (TPP), but also the evolving relationship between Tobago and central government.
Augustine’s TPP is a movement born from a break with the Progressive Democratic Patriots, which itself had wrested control of the THA from the long-dominant People’s National Movement (PNM).
Since then, Tobago’s political mood has shifted further.
In April, the PNM lost national power, falling to the United National Congress (UNC), and Tobagonians reinforced their discontent by voting out both PNM parliamentary representatives on the island.
Taken together, these results suggest that the electorate is in no mood for a simple restoration of the old order in Scarborough.
There is a growing sense that even if the PNM regains ground from the crushing 14–1 defeat in December 2021, it may not be enough at this time to catapult the party back into power.
Yet, elections are rarely decided on yesterday’s defeats alone. Tobagonians will be voting on performance, autonomy and respect - three themes that now intertwine in complex ways.
On the fiscal front, the current UNC administration has given the THA its largest-ever national budget allocation, alongside approval for a long-sought licence to export aggregate from the Studley Park quarry.
For an island long frustrated by constrained revenues and limited economic space, these decisions signal a markedly warmer relationship with Port-of-Spain in general, and also better than under previous UNC-led administrations.
It is a historical fact that for more than two decades, the UNC’s relationship with Tobago has been strained, and parties with which the UNC aligned in the past did not fare well with the electorate there.
All of that, however, can be turned around on January 12, depending on whether Augustine can translate today’s pragmatism into durable trust.
It is for him to gauge the views of voters on the TPP’s alignment with the ruling party, which may continue to prove economically beneficial to the island, but also risks reopening old historical wounds.
That tension was recently exposed by the central government’s approval of a US military radar system in Tobago without Augustine’s prior knowledge.
The justification - that Augustine is not a member of the National Security Council - may be constitutionally sound, but politically, it has struck many Tobagonians as dismissive.
For critics, the issue is not only sovereignty and the spectre of Tobago being drawn into geopolitical conflicts beyond its choosing, but also one of respect for the island’s leadership.
How Augustine navigates this episode - whether as a defender of Tobago’s autonomy or a constrained partner of central authority - could influence undecided voters.
In office, Augustine can point to his achievements: administrative reforms, a renewed focus on youth development and culture, and expanded infrastructure programmes.
Public response has been mixed - supportive of his transparency and accessibility, yet increasingly demanding on delivery, especially in employment, hospital services, and economic diversification.
This election, then, is Augustine’s true test.
No longer the insurgent challenger or the hopeful reformer, he now stands as an incumbent seeking validation, and more particularly, on his ability to advance Tobago’s voice within the Republic.
