A change in gov­ern­ment is an op­por­tu­ni­ty for re­new­al. Fresh eyes should bring a fresh view. This ad­min­is­tra­tion in­her­its all of its pre­de­ces­sor’s prob­lems. Most are not new and would have ex­ist­ed dur­ing Kam­la Per­sad-Bisses­sar’s first term as Prime Min­is­ter. Cir­cum­stances have changed marked­ly since 2015 and re­quire greater ur­gency.

First, the econ­o­my is slow­ly emerg­ing from a de­pres­sion which be­gan in 2014 when en­er­gy prices de­clined. Eco­nom­ic growth is weak. Gas pro­duc­tion has de­clined sig­nif­i­cant­ly since then. The 2014 ex­plo­ration in­cen­tives brought on­ly a re­prieve and did not pro­vide a long-term fix to the nat­ur­al gas short­age. The man­age­ment of ex­ist­ing lease con­ces­sions must be im­proved, and small­er fields brought in­to pro­duc­tion, amongst oth­er mea­sures.

Sec­ond, de­clin­ing nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion al­so sig­nals the im­per­a­tive of a more di­ver­si­fied ap­proach to the coun­try’s en­er­gy needs. Eco­nom­ic growth re­quires ad­e­quate en­er­gy re­sources to pow­er busi­ness en­ter­pris­es. The com­par­a­tive ad­van­tage that came from cheap­er gas is gone. That means we must in­vest in re­new­able en­er­gy. This is good busi­ness sense and com­men­su­rate with our cli­mate change com­mit­ments and our en­er­gy re­quire­ments.

Third, de­clin­ing nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion re­quires the de­vel­op­ment of oth­er ex­ports to meet the coun­try’s for­eign ex­change needs. The pri­vate sec­tor must lead this dri­ve but can­not pro­ceed with­out gov­ern­ment fa­cil­i­ta­tion in im­prov­ing the ease of do­ing busi­ness and mar­ket out­reach. This is a long-term ef­fort that needs more than five years. In the short run, a more re­al­is­tic mar­ket-based mech­a­nism must be adopt­ed to ad­dress the cur­rent for­eign ex­change short­ages and to in­cen­tivise di­ver­si­fi­ca­tion.

Fourth, eco­nom­ic growth is much weak­er than the boom times that ex­ist­ed in Mrs Per­sad-Bisses­sar’s first term. Dur­ing that pe­ri­od, trans­fers and sub­si­dies dou­bled from $15 bil­lion in 2010 to $30 bil­lion by 2015, be­com­ing the most sig­nif­i­cant item in gov­ern­ment ex­pen­di­ture. Giv­en the de­pres­sion, the bud­get deficit in­creased, as did bor­row­ings and the na­tion­al debt. Low­er rev­enues have made bal­anc­ing the Gov­ern­ment’s ex­pen­di­ture with its cash flow more com­pli­cat­ed.

Fifth, chang­ing de­mo­graph­ics in­di­cate that our pop­u­la­tion is age­ing. The so­cial se­cu­ri­ty sys­tem is stressed as the Na­tion­al In­sur­ance Board can no longer meet its oblig­a­tions from con­tri­bu­tions and in­vest­ment in­come and must sell as­sets to fi­nance the short­fall. At the cur­rent rates, the NIB will be bank­rupt in the ear­ly 2030s.

An age­ing pop­u­la­tion in­creas­es the de­mand for so­cial as­sis­tance, se­nior cit­i­zens' grants, pen­sions and health care. New mech­a­nisms must be found to gen­er­ate the re­sources to fund these grow­ing de­mands. In short, an age­ing pop­u­la­tion means that cit­i­zens will have to work longer and re­tire lat­er, and every­one will have to pay more.

Sixth, an age­ing pop­u­la­tion im­plies a small­er work­force. To achieve a de­cent lifestyle, the small­er work­ing pop­u­la­tion will need to be more skilled in the sci­ences and pro­duce at world-class stan­dards. Our ed­u­ca­tion sys­tem is present­ly far from achiev­ing those stan­dards.

Ad­dress­ing these chal­lenges re­quires a na­tion­al com­mit­ment to clear­ly ar­tic­u­lat­ed goals and dis­ci­pline to stay the course. These are big ob­jec­tives for a pop­u­la­tion that has grown ac­cus­tomed to a lifestyle fa­cil­i­tat­ed by en­er­gy rents.

Chang­ing the na­tion­al mind­set is the key to ad­dress­ing these chal­lenges. The prop­er­ty tax regime, the Rev­enue Au­thor­i­ty and the de­mer­it points sys­tem were mech­a­nisms to im­prove com­pli­ance with na­tion­al ob­jec­tives. Re­vok­ing these ini­tia­tives sends the wrong mes­sage. Suc­cess­ful­ly ad­dress­ing these dif­fi­cult na­tion­al chal­lenges re­quires a dif­fer­ent lead­er­ship style that does not play to the gallery.