The Central Bank has issued a clarification regarding the country’s natural gas allocation and its direct impact on foreign exchange reserves.
The response follows a commentary published in the Sunday Business Guardian penned by energy analyst Gregory McGuire, which openly questioned public statements made by Central Bank Governor Larry Howai last Wednesday, at Amcham T&T’s annual Tech Hub Islands Summit (THIS).
In an interview with Guardian Media’s business desk, Howai assured that the closure of Methanex’s Titan at the end of September would not lead to tighter rationing of T&T’s foreign exchange supply, adding that gas sold to the methanol plant would be diverted to other companies.
However, McGuire’s analysis challenged that perspective, arguing that NGC already maximises its ten per cent equity entitlement at Atlantic LNG, while major partners Shell and BP have little commercial incentive to process NGC’s surplus gas over their own upstream supply.
Furthermore, McGuire warned that the sudden surplus shifts Point Lisas into a “buyers’ market,” giving remaining plant operators the leverage to negotiate lower gas prices.
Describing Howai’s in the interview as being overly optimistic, McGuire argued Titan’s closure, along with the closure of the Nutrien’s five-plant complex last October, would result in National Gas Company (NGC) losing sales of between 155 and 170 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.
McGuire also raised alarms over unaddressed “take-or-pay” contract provisions between NGC and the upstream suppliers, which he argued could leave the state-owned NGC financially liable for paying them for gas it cannot sell to the petrochemical companies.
In response to those specific concerns, the Central Bank clarified that its ongoing foreign exchange reserve projections rely on a diverse network of industry sources, including the Ministry of Energy and individual energy sector corporations.
Upon learning of the Methanex shutdown, the Central Bank said it contacted the NGC to assess how the closure would reshape the nation’s financial forecasts.
“This point is important as the Central Bank recalibrates its foreign exchange reserve projections on an ongoing basis and does so using the information provided from a number of sources, including the Ministry of Energy and, as well, companies in the sector. Immediately on learning that Methanex was ceasing operations, the bank contacted the NGC to understand the implications of this for its forecasts of foreign exchange and was assured that the gas was going to be allocated to other companies.
“The NGC confirmed that there will be no gas ‘left in the ground’ and indicated, for good measure, in subsequent discussions, the companies which may take the additional gas. The NGC has further stated that there may even be an uplift in the price received and that the arrangements will continue into the foreseeable future,” the bank explained.
It said it understands that there are other issues that need to be considered in deriving the overall impact of the decision made by Methanex and these have also been taken into account in identifying the impact on overall cash flows.
The Central Bank added it reconfirmed on July 6, 2026 with the NGC that the gas is being allocated to alternative uses.
