The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday reflected a World Bank report last week that the T&T economy declined by minus 0.5 per cent last year and is projected to experience real growth of 0.2 per cent this year.
The IMF also projects that the domestic economy would grow by 2.2 per cent in 2027 and by 3.1 per cent in 2028.
The report by the IMF came in its Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook, which was published yesterday, as the so-called lender of last resort closed off its Autumn 2026 meeting in Thailand.
In its latest Article IV Consultation report with the T&T authorities, which was published in June this year, the IMF estimated that the T&T economy had grown by 0.8 per cent in 2025, is projected to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2026 and by 3.0 per cent in 2027.
According to the IMF, the Caribbean non-tourism dependent countries will register growth of 8.2 per cent in 2025, increasing to 11 per cent this year before declining to 9.6 and 8.2 in the years 2027 and 2028.
Guyana leads the growth with projections put at 22.3 per cent this year, having registered growth of 19.3 per cent last year. The IMF is projecting that Guyana’s growth over the years 2027 and 2028 will be 16.8 and 9.2 per cent, respectively.
Suriname will maintain the same four per cent growth in 2026 as it had registered the previous year, increasing to 4.1 per cent next year and further increasing to 28.2 per cent in 2028.
Haiti is the only Caribbean Community (Caricom) country where economic growth for the next two years will be negative.
The IMF said Haiti registered minus 2.7 per cent economic growth in 2025, minus 1.7 per cent this year and minus 0.5 per cent next year. But the French-speaking Caricom country is expected to register positive growth of 0.7 per cent in 2028.
According to the IMF, real GDP growth for the Caribbean is estimated at 6.1 per cent in 2025, climbing to eight per cent in 2026, declining slightly to 7.4 and 7.2 per cent, respectively, for the years 2027 and 2028.
According to the IMF, the Caribbean tourism-dependent countries will register economic growth of two per cent last year, declining to 1.4 per cent this year, before increasing to 2.3 per cent next year and dropping slightly to two per cent in 2028.
Barbados’ economic growth of 2.7 per cent last year will decline to 1.8 per cent this year, before recovering to 2.2 and 2.1 per cent over the following two years.
In the case of Antigua and Barbuda, the island recorded economic growth of three per cent last year, declining to 2.4 per cent this year and increasing to 2.5 per cent for the next two years.
Last year, Grenada recorded growth of 4.8 per cent, but the IMF is projecting that for this year it will record 3.9 per cent, before declining to three per cent and 2.9 per cent over the 2027-28 years.
Jamaica is not expected to record any economic growth this year, a slight decline on the 0.1 per cent registered in 2025 and Kingston is projected to have economic growth of 2.4 and 1.8 per cent over the 2027 and 2028 period.
The Bahamas’ economic growth last year had been set at 3.8 per cent, but will decline to 2.5 per cent this year, and further decline to 1.9 and 1.8 per cent, respectively, for the years 2027 and 2028. (CMC)
The IMF said Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has attracted substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) but it remains less integrated into international trade than many peer emerging market (EM) regions.
It said that the stock of inward FDI in the region was valued at about three trillion US dollars trillion in 2024, equivalent to 44 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the LAC, compared with 25 per cent in Asian EMs and 21 per cent in European EMs. (CMC)
