Traditionally, energy security has been associated with the availability of natural gas resources and the reliability of supply. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) says recent geopolitical tensions have brought another factor into sharper focus: the security of LNG shipping routes that connect exporters with buyers around the world.
In its July Monthly Gas Market Report, the GECF says the global LNG trade relies on a limited number of strategic maritime routes. Disruptions along those routes, whether caused by conflict, security threats or environmental events, have the potential to interrupt supply, increase transportation costs and reduce the resilience of global gas markets. While alternative routes are available in some cases, they are typically longer, more expensive and less efficient.
The report identifies the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal as the three most critical maritime chokepoints for global LNG trade. Each plays a distinct role in connecting major LNG exporters with importing markets across Europe and Asia.
The accompanying chart shows how LNG carrier traffic through these waterways has changed over the past decade. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz have remained relatively stable from 2015 through 2024, generally exceeding 1,100 vessels annually, reflecting its role as the only maritime outlet for LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Traffic was disrupted after the US/Israel war on Iran began on February 28, 2026, although the chart’s 2026 figure covers only January to June and is therefore not comparable with the full-year totals. More recent vessel-tracking data showed the ten-day moving average for laden LNG transits falling by about 75 per cent, from 0.8 cargoes per day in late June to 0.2 by July 15. Vessel movements through the Suez Canal and Panama Canal, meanwhile, have declined from peaks recorded earlier in the decade.
According to the GECF, security concerns in the Red Sea and drought-related restrictions affecting the Panama Canal have fundamentally reshaped global LNG shipping patterns. More cargoes are now travelling around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the traditional canal routes. The difference in journey times is significant. A voyage from the US Gulf Coast to Japan takes about 20 days via the Panama Canal but 34 days when rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. A shipment from the US Gulf Coast to India takes about 23 days via the Suez Canal, compared with 30 days via the Cape route.
Longer voyages have consequences beyond slower deliveries. Ships remain occupied for longer periods, reducing vessel availability across the global fleet. Charter rates have risen sharply during periods of disruption, while higher fuel consumption and increased war-risk insurance premiums have pushed shipping costs higher. Together, these factors have made LNG transportation a much larger component of the delivered cost of gas.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most strategically important route for LNG shipping. It is the sole maritime outlet for LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, which together account for about one-fifth of global LNG supply. The Panama Canal also plays a vital role by providing the principal shortcut linking LNG exports from the US Gulf Coast and Trinidad and Tobago with markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
For T&T, the findings illustrate how events well beyond the country’s borders influence the economics of LNG exports. Disruptions at the Panama Canal do not affect domestic production, but they increase voyage distances and transportation costs for cargoes destined for Asia-Pacific markets.
Looking ahead, the GECF expects around 250 million tonnes per annum of new global LNG liquefaction capacity to come online by 2030, with nearly half located along the US Gulf Coast. At the same time, new export terminals on the Pacific coasts of Canada and Mexico, together with planned LNG developments in Africa, are expected to diversify global trade flows and reduce dependence on a small number of strategic maritime chokepoints.
As global LNG trade expands, the report concludes that the resilience of the gas market will increasingly depend not only on new production capacity, but also on secure and reliable shipping routes connecting producers and consumers.
