Amid escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, economists are divided over whether the looming threat of military conflict will rattle global oil markets—and what it could mean for Trinidad and Tobago.
Venezuela, home to the world’s largest crude reserves, has formally alerted the Organiation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that the US is attempting to seize its oil resources amid rising political and military pressure. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez said President Nicolás Maduro sent a letter warning that Washington’s actions “endanger the balance of the global energy market” and stressed that Venezuela will defend its sovereign energy assets “at all costs.”
Former Finance Minister and economist Mariano Browne downplayed fears of a major price shock.
“The market is soft for energy, particularly oil. Prices have hovered around US$60 over the past year. Venezuela produces just over a million barrels, mainly for China. I don’t see a significant impact on global prices,” Browne told Guardian Media.
Even if there were a slight uptick, he added, T&T would barely notice.
“We’re price takers. A two- to three-per cent increase in oil prices isn’t what this economy needs. Natural gas prices are far more significant. About 90 percent of our foreign exchange earnings from the energy sector come from gas, which has been trending upwards around US$4 per MMBtu.”
Browne cited conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war as examples where major wars did not trigger drastic oil price spikes, suggesting that speculation alone won’t move the needle. “Only hard action—real military disruption of supply—can meaningfully shift prices.”
Yet, other experts warn T&T cannot afford to be complacent. Economist Dr Ronald Ramkissoon said a military clash involving Venezuela would likely drive crude and gas prices higher, benefiting major producers while straining non-producers.
“Any benefit to T&T would be constrained by our low production. More importantly, because of our size, geography, and political position, the country faces far greater risks than temporary price spikes,” Ramkissoon said.
He stressed that avoiding conflict is paramount. “This nation must urgently deploy all intellectual and strategic resources to navigate the crisis safely. Military escalation in our region could be catastrophic.”
International media have also weighed in. OilPrice.com reported that Venezuela’s 1.1 million barrels a day of heavy-sour crude are critical for US and Asian refineries, and any disruption could spike Brent crude and diesel prices. Chinadaily.com warned that a total cut-off of Venezuelan supply could trigger a global oil panic, potentially pushing prices above US$150 per barrel, inflating costs for transportation, manufacturing, and energy, and triggering severe economic consequences worldwide.
Meanwhile, Caracas insists the US accusations of “narco-terrorism” are a pretext for intervention. Rodríguez declared on Instagram, “Venezuela will remain firm in the defence of its natural energy resources. Nothing will stop us! We will continue to be free and sovereign!”
For Trinidad and Tobago, the risk is less about profit from fluctuating energy prices and more about proximity to a flashpoint that could destabilise the region. While analysts debate market impacts, the country’s real concern is the humanitarian and security fallout should military action in Venezuela escalate.
Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal did not respond to requests for comment at press time.
