Mariano Browne
At the height of the Cold War in 1974, many Caribbean states established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. At the time, China’s per capita income (GDP per capita) was approximately USD 160 compared to T&T’s USD 1,440. Much has changed since then. China has evolved from a poor, largely agrarian economy into the second-largest economy in the world, the largest exporter of manufactured goods, a technological and industrial superpower, and a peer competitor to the United States. There are many lessons to be learned from this and opportunities to be explored.
US President Trump’s visit to China last week demonstrated that competitors must find ways to resolve contentious issues through engagement in the new multipolar world. Conversely, Caribbean states are small and operate in an increasingly fragmented international system, where the predictability of international institutions is eroding due to the deliberate actions of the United States. Small states have limited resources and are exposed to external shocks, whether climatic or economic and will require external assistance.
Therefore, Caribbean states must find ways to manage their vulnerabilities and not rely on external “guarantees.” Resilience means understanding and managing risk and building redundancy where possible. Whilst the US is the region’s largest trading partner and source of foreign direct investment, it is not the largest source of soft loans, grants or aid. Indeed, as the US has reduced its aid programmes, so have many OECD countries. Given its vulnerabilities, the Caribbean must explore alternatives that facilitate its interests.
China provides such an alternative. Between 2007 and 2024, total trade between China and the major Caribbean countries increased from $2.05 billion to $10.94 billion. However, while there was steady overall growth, there was a high level of concentration, significant structural and regional volatility. The three largest economies accounted for 70% of that growth. China’s export profile to the region is primarily composed of intermediate and capital goods (63.5%). This aligns with local demands for industrialisation and infrastructure development.
China’s investment in the region also reflects volatility and is highly concentrated in the larger economies. Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Trinidad and Tobago serve as the primary destinations for investment, though Guyana’s share has expanded rapidly since 2016. The high volatility reflects the fact that the investment cycle is primarily driven by infrastructure projects.
Ten Caribbean countries (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana) have signed Belt and Road Initiative Memoranda of Understanding with China. These agreements offer opportunities to build bilateral relationships and promote institutional arrangements for practical development projects.
To facilitate this process, the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Forum was established in 2015. The CELAC framework provides Caribbean small states with a platform for dialogue on a more equal footing, helping to mitigate asymmetries in bargaining power arising from differences in national size and economic scale in bilateral relations. The forum serves as a primary vehicle for South-South cooperation. It provides a multipolar framework for development that does not require nations to compromise their existing ties to Western powers such as the United States.
Similarly, the China–Caribbean Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum was established in 2004. It is the highest-level intergovernmental mechanism for economic and trade dialogue between China and Caribbean countries.
China’s 2025 Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean proposes long-term, stable trade with Caribbean countries. It also explicitly supports the development concerns of small island states. The policy incorporates the Global Development, Security, and Civilisation Initiatives into China’s framework for Latin America and the Caribbean.
The policy promotes a shift in bilateral cooperation. The approach moves from a project-driven focus to a framework that is more rules- and institution-oriented. The policy also states that accommodation will be provided in accordance with Caribbean needs. This provides a basis for differentiated cooperation.
This approach is of critical importance to Caricom as it offers a new modality to China/Caribbean Cooperation. As intimated above, between 2000 and 2024, the approach was government-to-government, focused on infrastructure and livelihood projects. The selected projects sometimes failed to gain popular approval. For example, the Aluminium Smelter project in T&T faced significant opposition and was abandoned by a newly elected government. Similar questions were raised about the North and South Academies for the performing arts.
The new approach identifies a new paradigm of green development and the digital economy as priority areas of cooperation, with an emphasis similar to that contained in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Under this dual policy framework, China–Caribbean cooperation is gradually expanding beyond traditional infrastructure and trade cooperation into emerging fields such as renewable energy, digital connectivity, and sustainable development. In line with this approach, the new cooperation framework will be based on new priorities, including capacity building, technological and institutional cooperation, and cooperation on global governance arrangements.
The key conclusion from this new policy orientation and approach is that China is pursuing long-term South-to-South cooperation. Further, it understands that its approach must more closely reflect the region’s development needs and changes in global governance arrangements. China has the necessary technical capacities to address the Caribbean’s key development needs. The political, economic and social consensus required to make any initiative successful is our responsibility.
Mariano Browne is the Chief Executive Officer of the Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business.
