Sixteen years ago, in a column ‘Brexit Salvageable’, I termed Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) “utterly backward” and “a regression in the development of western civilisation.”
The world needed a strong Europe. And still does. The “blood-soaked continent” had been ravaged by hundreds of years of conflict, including two world wars in the 20th century. Taking advantage of geography and the proximity of its countries to one another, the continent’s leaders engineered peace and prosperity through deliberate and decisive economic integration, first with the European Coal and Steel Community, then the European Economic Community and finally the European Union at Maastricht in 1992. The European model has influenced Asia, Africa and our own hemisphere where we have had several integration processes: Nafta, Mercosur, The Andean Pact, Central American Economic Integration and of course, Caricom.
I ended that 2016 column hoping that, as President Barack Obama’s tenure was coming to an end, he would be succeeded by Hilary Clinton in the approaching presidential election. I said “all western leaders must ensure global stability by making Brexit salvageable. We must not give Vladimir Putin too much cause to celebrate.”
Alas, things turned out so differently. Donald Trump succeeded Obama, Europe was shaken for four years with Putin jubilant, President Joe Biden repaired the damage four years later, but Trump returned and here we are today with global stability on the brink.
And Britain, whose destiny, as repeatedly said, is obviously with Europe, has never recovered from that colossal blunder of leaving the Union. “Its people, politicians and businesses have been reckoning with the consequences of that decision ever since,” wrote Michael D. Shear and Megan Specia in their recent New York Times column. “No part of life escaped untouched by the Brexit referendum in the 10 years since.”
Today, economists say the British economy is “smaller”, “sluggish” or “stalled”. Business investments are down more than 10 per cent; and British exports to the EU down by 12 per cent, with agriculture and food exports falling by nearly 30 per cent. Many small businesses no longer court European customers because of the added time and expense.
“Britain is poorer.” One study by Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom estimates Brexit has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8 per cent - a substantial loss of output which translates into lower tax revenues to fund government spending and slower improvement in people’s living standards. The Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog, believes Brexit will reduce the country’s long-run productivity which already lags other major economies.
And Brexit freed Britain to sign 39 trade agreements covering 72 countries. But this hasn’t made up for lost trade with the European Union, a prosperous market of 450 million people on Britain’s doorstep, underscoring the critical importance of proximity and preferential access. Indeed, despite the extra costs and hurdles produced by Brexit, Europe is still Britain’s largest trading partner by far, accounting for more than 40 per cent of its trade. ‘Geography is destiny’. It is also the title of a 2022 book by Ian Morris, chronicling Britain’s 10,000-year history with Europe.
And the economics after Brexit has profoundly affected Britain’s politics. Faced with the demands of an “angry, disillusioned public”, no administration since Brexit has endured. The latest casualty is Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the sixth British leader felled prematurely by Brexit-produced challenges. Ruth Curtice, CEO of research institute Resolution Foundation, says “For all the competence questions about Keir Starmer, the challenges he faced as prime minister come back to the economy not having grown, a fact fundamentally driven by Brexit.”
Starmer’s predecessors with abbreviated tenures were David Cameron who resigned after he lost the referendum, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, a “revolving door at No. 10 Downing Street”. Jill Rutter, senior fellow at Britain’s Institute for Government, says, “Political instability has best characterized the past decade. Restoring faith in the state’s capacity to deliver is a major uphill task.”
And, has Brexit brought any restoration of British supremacy around the world as Brexiters had promised? Wasn’t Britain supposed to “take back control” of its destiny instead of having ‘Bureaucratic Brussels’ dictate its direction. Didn’t glory days beckon as promised by leading advocate Boris Johnson who saw “the sunlit meadows beyond?” All a fantasy, of course, or as former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine says cynically, “the sovereignty of the man in the desert”.
Today, polls indicate a majority of Britons favour rejoining the EU. Former Prime Minister Sir John Major who has been “scathing’ of Brexit and its advocates, says Britain will get back into Europe but that negotiations “would not be easy and will take a long time.” Major wants the government to be “honest” with Britons about “the devastating damage of leaving the EU”. He wants the new prime minister to make closer relations with Europe central to his tenure.
Indeed, front-runner for the position, Andy Burnham, has said, “In my lifetime I hope to see this country rejoin the European Union.” He has however adopted a cautious approach to the process. But for many, Britain must embrace it. Geographically, it is part of Europe. Can destiny be avoided?
