As the administration embarks on its second year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued an assessment of the country’s economy during its first year in office. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar terms it a “powerful endorsement of prudent economic management and unwavering commitment to rebuilding Trinidad and Tobago after a decade of economic decline”.
Finance Minister Dave Tancoo fully agrees and underscores what they inherited from the preceding administration: “reduced fiscal space, declining foreign exchange reserves, rising public debt, employment pressures, persistent deficits and repeated withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) totalling US$3.02 billion.”
Net official reserves fell from approximately US$10.459 billion in September 2015 to US$5.286 billion by April 2025, while adjusted general government debt nearly doubled from $75.381 billion to $144.748 billion over the same period. A very challenging economic condition.
Economists were also positive about the IMF report but sounded warnings. Dr Jamelia Harris found it “overall positive”, but is concerned about foreign exchange, noting that import cover was projected at 5.5 months in 2026, compared with 6.1 months in 2025 and 6.7 months in 2024.
“Significant structural issues need to be addressed,” Harris said. Critical work for the second year.
Dr Indera Sagewan sees the assessment as an endorsement of the government’s policy direction but noted that sustainability remained linked to the energy sector while the IMF identified manufacturing and services as increasingly important non-energy drivers of growth. These obviously need to be pushed in the second year.
Dr Marlene Attzs said the Fund found conditions improving but “difficult work still lies ahead” as significant vulnerabilities remained.
The government agrees there is much work ahead.
Persad-Bissessar says her administration remains focused on revitalising the energy sector and also “diversifying the economy, improving the investment climate and reducing bureaucracy”, critical factors for their second year.
Sagewan agrees diversification efforts should now be more targeted and planned. UWI Professor Dr Roger Hosein warns the country’s non-energy export sector, “central to our long-term sustainability”, declined in 2025. He wants more “non-energy exports of goods and services” above all else.
Indeed, for the ten years of the last administration, I preached “diversification for new foreign earnings” as “indispensable” to this nation’s salvation. “Diversify or Die”, I thundered repeatedly.
The government has embarked on the path. In his first budget presentation, Tancoo placed diversification as central to economic management. He wants agriculture to contribute far more than 1% of GDP.
The Ministry of Agriculture, in alignment with Caricom’s targets, is aiming to reduce food imports by at least 25% by 2030 while promoting agro-exports. Key measures include a 3-Year Priority Commodities Programme for 15 high-demand products, with annual focus on three crops and one livestock category.
Export growth is expected in fine-flavour cocoa, Moruga pepper, and aquaculture, doubling agro-exports by 2028. We’ll undoubtedly get reports on these in this critical second year.
And on progress regarding the planned modernisation of the sector with climate-resilient farming and crop insurance, greenhouse incentives, and water-harvesting systems. Smart Agriculture and AI Farming are expected to increase efficiency and self-sufficiency, targeting $1 billion in exports next fiscal year.
The budget earmarked significant investment of $793.7 million for infrastructure, irrigation, fisheries, land development, and agri-tech initiatives.
And emphasising partnerships, Tancoo said, “Agriculture, manufacturing, and trade are part of the same ecosystem. Together, they will drive diversification and make T&T food-secure by 2030.”
Exciting plans on which reports would definitely be expected during this critical second year.
Indeed, last Wednesday, Minister of Trade, Investment and Tourism, Satyakama Maharaj, gave his Diversification in Action Year One Report. He said, after one year, his ministry is more modernised and capable now of driving “a major transformation of T&T’s non-energy economy through stronger public-private sector coordination, investment facilitation and tourism expansion initiatives.”
Indeed, as indicated in the budget statement, this ministry plans new products in medical, sport, and cultural tourism; and will facilitate the completion of hotels, including Four Points, Hampton Inn and Maracas Bay; and advance Tobago’s Marriott and Elephant Tree Resorts.
A year-round “Carnival City” and the Turtle Tourism Capital initiative are planned. Direct US flights to Tobago will strengthen access, and incentives for global hotel brands are expected to spur foreign investment and job creation.
Our marine sector will also be repositioned as a Southern Caribbean yachting and marine services hub. Simplified immigration and customs procedures, digital clearances, and PPP-driven marinas and super-yacht facilities will expand tourism and investment, targeted at US$3 billion over two years and US$9 billion in five years, creating 3,000 jobs.
Also earmarked for tourism development is the Orange Economy involving the creative and cultural industries. A Creative Value-Chain Fund is planned for supporting film, fashion, design, and music. Enhanced Intellectual Property protection and duty concessions will empower creatives and generate thousands of jobs.
The nation looks forward to progress on all these plans for tourism in the second year. The above is just some of the work engaging the government during its first year and now into the second. As the Prime Minister says, T&T has shifted from a period of economic deterioration to one of rebuilding, transformation and renewed progress.
The government’s second year will be critical towards achieving these objectives.
