The most cov­et­ed prize on any rac­ing cal­en­dar, the Der­by will be run off on Re­pub­lic Day (Sep­tem­ber 24) at the Ari­ma Race Club.

Un­like 2023, there is no pos­si­bil­i­ty of a Triple Crown win­ner in 2024 with two dif­fer­ent hors­es hav­ing won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. In the open­ing leg, the Guineas, Un­cle Rog, was the win­ner with Red Alert and Se­cret Pages fill­ing the run­ner up po­si­tions (sec­ond and third re­spec­tive­ly). In the sec­ond leg, the Mid­sum­mer Clas­sic, run off on turf, the win­ner was For­ev­er Grand with Un­be­liev­able and Se­cret Pages fill­ing the run­ner-up po­si­tions.

Un­cle Rog was ex­treme­ly dis­ap­point­ing fin­ish­ing tailed off in the event. It may be that the did not ap­pre­ci­ate the turf sur­face though he had been suc­cess­ful on that sur­face pre­vi­ous­ly. It seemed more like­ly that the ru­mours of his non well-be­ing were well found­ed. Both Un­cle Rog and For­ev­er Grand are trained by John O’Brien.

The Trinidad Der­by will be de­cid­ing event for the year with both win­ners fea­tur­ing among the sev­en hors­es for whom fi­nal sub­scrip­tions have been paid. They are joined by their sta­ble com­pan­ion, Head­lines Again who was the un­beat­en cham­pi­on ju­ve­nile of 2023 and re­turned to the races with a good sec­ond to an im­port­ed horse af­ter miss­ing the first two legs of the Guineas while re­cov­er­ing from an in­jury.

The O’Brien trio are joined by the Mid­sum­mer Clas­sic sec­ond, Un­be­liev­able; the third place fin­ish­er in the first two clas­sics, Se­cret Pages; and two hors­es who have failed to trou­ble the judges in any of their races, Cap­i­tal Tee and Hot Rod Kash­ton. In fact, the last three hors­es are still maid­ens.

Un­cle Rog has been some­thing of an enig­ma in 2024. Af­ter a maid­en two-year-old sea­son al­though show­ing steady im­prove­ment, he con­tin­ued his up­grade run from his three-year-old de­but cul­mi­nat­ing in his Guineas win. He has been some­what dis­ap­point­ing since but his Mid­sum­mer Clas­sic run was his worst per­for­mance since his de­but. He has not been seen on the course since that run, al­beit there was on­ly one race­day so pun­ters will have to judge from his re­port­ed gal­lops with re­spect to his well be­ing. The se­lec­tion of the sta­ble’s prin­ci­pal rid­er, Dil­lon Khelawan, should be il­lus­tra­tive in that re­spect al­so.

For­ev­er Grand was un­raced as a two-year-old and was al­so well beat­en on his three-year-old de­but. He im­proved to win his next start but his Mid­sum­mer Clas­sic win was still a shock re­sult. Whether he can trans­late that turf form to the dirt will be the main un­known with this colt though his maid­en win was on the main track. He is a half broth­er to the best horse in the coun­try, Hel­lo World, but hav­ing been al­ready geld­ed, may not have the same scope as his broth­er.

The third of the O’Brien trio is Head­lines Again. This fil­ly is sired by the best sire in the coun­try, Head­lines News, who un­for­tu­nate­ly does not get the same op­por­tu­ni­ties as many less­er sires. The fil­ly is al­so a sib­ling to many top class hors­es, most no­tably, Mak­ing Head­lines. Af­ter miss­ing most of the sea­son, she re­turned to run a fine sec­ond to The God­dess Nike over 1,350 me­tres and that form is prob­a­bly bet­ter than the clas­sic form of her ri­vals in this race. She will need to prove her fit­ness over this longer dis­tance but that is the on­ly ques­tion mark against her name. Her class may still be enough to get her home.

The op­po­si­tion to the O’brien trio is led by two clas­sic placed hors­es, Un­be­liev­able and Se­cret Pages. The for­mer was run­ner-up in the Mid­sum­mer Clas­sic on the turf and has shown his best form on that sur­face scor­ing his maid­en win on that sur­face al­so. He has been less suc­cess­ful on the main track with just one third in five starts and fin­ish­ing un­placed in his Der­by prep on Au­gust 31. He showed no signs of stop­ping in Mid­sum­mer so sta­mi­na may not be an is­sue but be­ing bred for the turf, he may find it dif­fi­cult to show the same lev­el of form on the main track.

Se­cret Pages who was third in the first two Clas­sics re­mains a maid­en af­ter eight starts. In­ter­est­ing­ly, on­ly two of those starts have been over dis­tances be­yond one mile (the two Clas­sics) and in both races, she was a one paced but stay­ing on third. Her maid­en races have been over short­er dis­tances and she was again third over 1,100m in her Der­by prep on Au­gust 31. That dis­tance would have been woe­ful­ly short for her. This fil­ly is prob­a­bly one of the few that is like­ly to still be­ing mov­ing for­ward at the end of this race and could run in­to one of the mi­nor places. The oth­er two con­tenders, Hot Rod Kash­ton and Cap­i­tal Tee are un­like­ly to fig­ure at the fin­ish.

There re­mains one Der­by, how­ev­er, and some­one must win. In an­oth­er low qual­i­ty edi­tion, the class of Head­lines Again should en­able this fil­ly to top this op­po­si­tion while Se­cret Pages could run in­to the places giv­en her pref­er­ence for longer dis­tances.