During the five years between 1960 and 1965, there were 33 countries which gained independent status. T&T gained Independence in 1962. Among the 33, only Singapore, Malta, Kuwait and Cyprus are doing better than T&T in per capita income. This might not be the best way of measuring, but still... it does say something. Only four of 33 countries that got independence around our time are better off than T&T.
By the same token, smaller countries, with less resources - dependencies like Bermuda and Cayman Islands, have much higher per capita incomes than T&T.
So, while we are not a basket case, there are real reasons for concern. Our per capita income is falling, inequality is increasing as people lose jobs, people can’t find jobs, incomes can’t stretch far enough and the gap in income widens. Some 100,000 households (of 450,000 plus) experience varying degrees of poverty.
There is general agreement that we are overdependent on energy, our inward investment flows are negligible, export is weak, our forex is falling and we have no way of replenishing it on the current course, our debt has increased considerably and our food import bill is very high. Since 2009, our country has been running on deficit budgets. Economic recovery is nowhere in sight.
Suppose we started with food security and tried to learn from the example of others? Guyana is self-sufficient in food and has 800,000 people, two-thirds of our population. But it also has a lot of land and water and went through a lot of hardship before it found oil.
But a country like Iceland has 360,000 people and is looking after its food needs very well. Fishing in Iceland exceeds domestic demand. Agricultural production is financed by a growing tourism industry and tourists become the market to consume some of the food, which in turn promotes the growth of agriculture. Iceland is also the world’s largest green energy producer per capita, driven by wind and geothermal energy. Everything Iceland does, we can do and perhaps do it even better. That includes the green energy we can get from the sun.
Uruguay is a South American country closer to home. It has a population of 3.4 million but provides food for 30 million. Foreign investors go to Uruguay because of confidence, security, exceptional quality of support and the level of trust built up.
Uruguay exports to 150 countries, including the demanding markets of North America and Europe. It exports to China. But its domestic production thrust is driven by information systems and other appropriate technologies. Uruguay generates 98 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources: hydro, wind, solar and biofuels. Uruguay is not a country abundant in natural resources, but the sun, water and wind are used effectively.
There are things T&T can learn from countries near and far, but we need to shift gears. The trajectory we are on is a path to frustration, deterioration and infighting.
Of 180 countries assessed, 80 countries are less corrupt than T&T. That is not good news. Ninety-eight countries are more corrupt than we are. That is no reason to feel better. Fifty-three countries are now more prosperous than T&T. In the last 10 years, we have dropped five places. If a country is not prosperous, it is difficult to provide social welfare support.
In 2015, we leaped 12 points in the ease of doing business ranking. At the last ranking, we got to the lowest point we have ever been. Some 104 countries are easier to do business with than T&T. In the last competitiveness ranking, T&T was 79th, which means more than half of the ranked countries are more competitive. T&T is ranked among high-income countries by the World Bank but in innovation, we are 51st, last in the group. Out of 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean assessed for innovation, we are 15th. The IMF tells us T&T is one of the least competitive countries in the world and likely to perform at a low level over the next two years. This is not good news. We must take action steps immediately.
A shift in gear is necessary and must come in the next budget. That budget must be the first of three that begin to shift the structure of production, pattern of consumption, diversify exports and increase tourist flows. After three years, measure and evaluate. T&T must grow the economy, be more self-sufficient, export more, get investments and forex and fix a lot of things. And the Government must explain to the citizenry what it is doing and why.
What are the other choices?
