KY­RON REG­IS

ky­ron.reg­is@guardian.co.tt

The In­ter­na­tion­al Mon­e­tary Fund (IMF) now ex­pects T&T’s econ­o­my to de­cline by a mas­sive 5.6 per­cent, this is a larg­er con­trac­tion than the Fund had orig­i­nal­ly pre­dict­ed.

The IMF’s new forec­st of the val­ue of T&T’s re­al Gross Do­mes­tic Prod­uct (GDP) for 2020 re­flect a 1.1 per cent high­er rate of de­cline from what it orig­i­nal­ly pro­ject­ed in April of a 4.5 per cent con­trac­tion.

The pro­ject­ed fall in the coun­try’s GDP by the IMF is how­ev­er low­er than the Fi­nance Min­is­ter Colm Im­bert pre­dict­ed when he told the Par­lia­ment that T&T’s GDP would de­cline 6.8 per­cent.

In his bud­get pre­sen­ta­tion Im­bert said: “Madam Speak­er, T&T’s out­put is now pro­ject­ed to con­tract in re­al terms by 6.8 per­cent in 2020, with re­cov­ery dri­ven by an emerg­ing dig­i­tal econ­o­my and a re­cov­er­ing glob­al econ­o­my ex­pect­ed by 2022.”

The pro­ject­ed de­cline in T&T’s econ­o­my for 2020 is among the low­est in the Caribbean. In the supra­na­tion­al or­ga­ni­za­tion’s World Eco­nom­ic Out­look, Oc­to­ber 2020 pub­li­ca­tion ti­tled: “A Long and Dif­fi­cult As­cent” many Caribbean coun­tries, ex­cept Guyana (ex­pect­ed to grow by 26.2 per cent), were giv­en deep­er de­clin­ing fore­cast when com­pared with T&T.

For ex­am­ple, the IMF in­di­cat­ed steep­er de­clines for the Ba­hamas ( -14.8), Bar­ba­dos (-11.6 per cent), Be­lize (-16 per cent), Do­mini­ca (-8.8), Grena­da (-11.8 per cent), Ja­maica (-8.6 per cent), St Kitts and Nevis (-18.7 per cent), St Lu­cia (-16.9 per cent), St Vin­cent and the Grenadines (-7 per cent) and Suri­name (-13.1 per cent).

Nonethe­less, while T&T’s down­ward pro­jec­tion for 2020 is not as deep as many oth­er Caribbean coun­tries, the IMF’s da­ta sig­nals that it is ex­pect­ed to grow at a slow­er rate when com­pared to most of the Caribbean coun­tries in 2021 up to 2025.

T&T’s re­al GDP growth rate fore­casts by the IMF is one of the low­est in the Caribbean for 2021 and 2025, with a pro­jec­tion of 2.6 per cent next year and 1.5 per cent in 2025.

Mean­while, for the years 2020 and 2025 the growth ex­pec­ta­tion of oth­er Cari­com coun­tries is Bar­ba­dos (7.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent), Be­lize (8 per cent and 2 per cent), Ja­maica (3.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent), St. Kitts and Nevis (8 per cent and 2.7 per cent) and St. Lu­cia (7.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent) .

For the re­gion of Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean as whole, the IMF re­vised the size of the con­trac­tion up­ward from the June fore­cast of -9.4 per cent to -8.1 per cent. The re­gion is ex­pect­ed to re­turn to pos­i­tive growth in 2021 with a re­al GDP pro­jec­tion of 3.6 per cent.

Con­cern­ing glob­al growth, IMF eco­nom­ic coun­cil­lor Gi­ta Gopinath said: “We are pro­ject­ing a some­what less se­vere though still deep re­ces­sion in 2020, rel­a­tive to our June fore­cast.”

Gopinath in­di­cat­ed that the re­vi­sion is dri­ven by sec­ond quar­ter GDP out­turns in large ad­vanced economies, which were not as neg­a­tive as the IMF had pro­ject­ed. The IMF’s Oc­to­ber glob­al growth out­look for 2020 stands at -4.4 per cent (-4.9 per cent in June) and 5.2 per cent in 2021