The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) on Tuesday said that the local economy grew by an estimated 4.6 per cent during the three month period, July to September this year, as compared to the same period last year.
PIOJ Director General, Dr Wayne Henry, said that the estimated outturn for the review quarter largely reflected recovery from the low production base experienced in the similar quarter last year.
He said that the economy recorded relatively strong growth driven mainly by the industries that were most impacted by Hurricane Beryl, that caused damage estimated at J$56.7 billion (One Jamaican dollar=US$0.008 cents) in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
He told reporters that the real gross domestic product (GDP) performance for the period January–September this year was estimated to have increased by 2.4 per cent, reflecting higher real value added of 5 per cent for the goods-producing industry, and 1.6 per cent for the services industry.
Henry said that the most significant drivers of this performance were agriculture, forestry & fishing, up 11.3 per cent, accommodation & food service activities, up 2.9 per cent and construction, increasing by 2.5 per cent. The PIOJ director general said that the short-term prospects for the Jamaican economy are are generally negative, reflecting the impact of the passage of Hurricane Melissa on October 28 this year.
“This outlook stems from the devastation which the Category 5 hurricane had on residential and productive assets, to include housing stock, the electricity generation, transmission and distribution network, the road network and water supply and telecommunication infrastructure.
“It is expected that there will be a significant fall in output and demand during the short to medium term. This outturn, would end the three consecutive quarters of economic growth, which reflected the gradual recovery, following the passage of Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Rafael, during the latter half of 2024,” Henry said.
He said that the extent of the damage from Hurricane Melissa is unprecedented and far reaching, affecting all industries.
“This is expected to result in increased unemployment, weakened demand and output,” he said.
The expected economic contraction for October–December 2025 is primarily expected to be transmitted through agriculture
Henry said that the agriculture industry is the most adversely impacted, with the seven most affected parishes accounting for approximately 74 per cent of total hectares of land devoted to domestic crop production, as well as a significant share of animal farming and export crop production.
The PIOJ said that there was significant damage to farm lands, fishing equipment, access roads, residential infrastructure, transportation equipment as well as the loss of livestock among other things.
Henry said that prior to the passage of Hurricane Melissa, the economy was poised for strong growth, reflecting economic recovery following the adverse hydrological events of the financial year 2024/25.
“Growth of 3.1 per cent was estimated for the first half of the current fiscal year and this was expected to continue throughout the second half. However, the passage of Hurricane Melissa will place significant downward pressure on most industries during the October–December 2025 quarter.
“In light of the foregoing, it is projected that the economy will contract within the range of 11 to 13 per cent during October–December 2025. The preliminary economic projection for financial year 2025/26 is for a contraction within the range of three per cent to six per cent,” Henry added.
The PIOJ said that the July 2025 Labour Market Survey fielded by the Statistiocal Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the employed labour force was 1,441,100 as at July 2025, an increase of 32,100 persons .
The unemployment rate was 3.3 per cent with male unemployment rate at 2.4 per cent and female unemployment rate at 4.4 per cent. The youth unemployment rate was 10.2 per cent.
The unemployed labour force declined by 6.5 per cent, reaching 49,200 individuals. CMC
Henry said in summary, the Jamaican economy recorded fairly robust growth during the review quarter, reflecting the recovery from the impact of Hurricane Beryl.
“Going forward, the economy will be faced with significant challenges arising from the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Melissa. It is anticipated that the economy will record a sharp downturn during the October–December quarter, the worst quarterly performance since the April–June quarter of 2020 when the island was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
He said that the frequency of weather-related and other shocks has hindered the country’s ability to realize sustained economic growth.
“This highlights the need to reexamine and prioritize plans and initiatives to address the challenges that have hindered the country’s ability to foster more robust and sustained growth. This would involve strategies to build resilience on all fronts, to include the economic, social and environmental.” (CMC)
