Raphael John-Lall
Former minister of energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine is forecasting that T&T could emerge as a major regional oil and gas processing hub over the next decade—an “industrial utopia” dependent on the successful development of deepwater resources and Venezuelan gas.
Ramnarine spoke last Friday at a webinar hosted by the Trade and Economic Development Unit of the University of the West Indies (UWI).
The webinar was entitled “Anticipated Macroeconomic Impact of Manatee on T&T.”
Ramnarine explained that the opportunity rests on three pillars: development of BP’s Calypso deepwater project, Venezuelan gas flowing to Trinidad from projects including Dragon and Loran, and a potentially major discovery by ExxonMobil in the Trinidad and Tobago Ultra-Deepwater area.
“If all those things come together, that is going to make T&T a processing hub for oil and gas,” he said.
The optimistic scenario follows a prolonged decline in the country’s hydrocarbon production. Ramnarine said T&T reached its natural gas production peak in 2010, averaging 4.3 billion cubic feet per day, but output has since fallen by about 40 per cent to under 2.5 billion cubic feet per day.
The decline has had major economic consequences, including reduced energy sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the closure of industrial plants at Point Lisas and underutilisation of Atlantic LNG.
However, Ramnarine believes the Manatee project could begin changing that trajectory. First gas is expected in the fourth quarter of 2027, although he said its full economic impact would be felt in 2028.
“Manatee is expected to be somewhere around 610 million cubic feet of gas per day, which is about 25 per cent of current national production,” he said. “So that’s a significant addition to natural gas production.”
The project is expected to drain about 2.7 trillion cubic feet of gas from the cross-border Loran-Manatee reservoir complex. Ramnarine said its importance lies not only in its reserves but in the substantial volume it will add to domestic production.
He said the return to growth could also be supported by EOG’s Coconut project and BP’s Ginger project, which together could add about 600 million cubic feet per day. This could push national gas production towards three billion cubic feet per day in 2027.
Ramnarine also pointed to Venezuelan projects, including Dragon, Loran and potentially Coquina-Manakin, as critical to preventing another long-term production decline.
He said T&T’s existing processing infrastructure and idle capacity make it economically attractive for Venezuelan gas to be processed locally.
Meanwhile, an informal LinkedIn poll conducted by Ramnarine found growing optimism about the economy. Of approximately 180 respondents, 60 per cent said they believed 2027 would be a better year for T&T’s economy than 2026.
Still, he cautioned that higher production would not necessarily translate immediately into substantially higher government revenue because companies must recover their investment costs.
“Manatee is important, and it’s going to happen,” Ramnarine said. “But we have to start thinking now beyond Manatee, and it calls for some big thinking.”
Spreading the wealth
Vice president, people and corporate services at Ramps, Javed Razack, who also spoke, said T&T could capture as much as US$400 million to US$500 million of the estimated US$2 billion investment in the Manatee gas project, but greater enforcement of local content rules will be critical to ensuring that the money creates jobs and business opportunities at home.
Razack said the Manatee development represents a major opportunity for local companies, with the project expected to produce between 600 million and 700 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day at peak production.
But he said the key issue was not simply how much money would be invested, but how much of that spending would remain in T&T.
“My estimate out of the $2 billion, is you could have as much as $400 to $500 million being spent in country.”
He identified some 40 areas and services where local companies could potentially capture spending from the Manatee project, including transportation, hotels, accommodation, ports and shore bases, waste management, vessel support, logistics, offshore containers, information technology, telecommunications and emergency response.
Razack said the fabrication of the topsides for the Manatee platform at La Brea alone could represent about US$100 million in spending.
He also highlighted the potential benefits for communities outside the traditional energy centres, noting that hotel expenditure associated with the project could exceed US$5 million over its approximately three-year development period.
He said ensuring that more of this expenditure remains locally would generate a multiplier effect, with companies earning profits and paying taxes while workers spend their income throughout the economy.
However, Razack said T&T is failing to fully enforce its existing local content framework.
He pointed to Guyana, where approximately 40 categories of services have been identified for local companies, with companies required to meet criteria including at least 51 per cent Guyanese ownership.
“We have our policy and contracts in place to manage that right now, but we don’t have adequate enforcement of that.”
He said local companies could also use opportunities created by the energy sector to build capacity, scale up and eventually export their services internationally.
With billions of dollars potentially being invested in new energy projects, Razack said T&T must ensure it does not merely host the projects, but captures a much larger share of the economic value they create.
He argued that stronger enforcement could change the outcome of future projects such as Manatee, Dragon and other developments.
“We need the employment locally. We need to build the services sector and keep them active. We need US dollars.”
Building new sectors
Economist Indera Sagewan, who also spoke, warned that T&T must resist the temptation to spend ahead of the expected energy-sector recovery, arguing that the country should use the coming boom to build new industries that can generate jobs, foreign exchange and revenue long after its natural gas resources decline.
Sagewan said while she was optimistic about the outlook for 2028 and beyond, the country should not expect a major revenue windfall in 2027 as new gas projects come on stream.
She said lower gas production in 2026 would continue to put pressure on foreign exchange earnings and government revenues, while the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio already stands at 84 per cent.
“I am very optimistic, and I see 2028 and beyond being good years for us,” Sagewan said. “We are going to see the revitalisation of the energy industry as we know it, and that’s good news.”
However, she cautioned that the economics of the new gas era will be different from the past. Much of the new gas is owned by Venezuela, while revenues from projects will initially be constrained as energy companies recover their capital investments.
Sagewan said T&T therefore needs to maximise the economic activity generated by the projects, including ensuring that local businesses and workers capture a greater share of spending.
She also warned that the country must think beyond simply restoring existing energy-sector production.
“Now is the time that we have to position ourselves to do that,” she said, referring to the need to develop multiple economic clusters beyond energy.
