It is a well-known fact that if you repeat something often enough, even if it is not the truth, or it is not the reality, it becomes your own reality and you begin to believe it yourself.
I, like many other people, looked at the interview that Energy Minister Stuart Young did with CNN’s Richard Quest programme, and to my shock and horror, the minister sought to give the impression that T&T was in a position to increase natural gas production to assist European countries that are in an economic war with Russia and who are, to a large measure, at the mercy of the Putin regime as it relates to oil and natural gas.
“We’re looking on at this international crisis taking place and, as you said, we see ourselves as punching way above our belt. We have been a significant gas producer, LNG producer for the last few decades.
“At our height of production, we were pumping out about 770 million MMBtu of LNG a year on an annual basis. We are four trains, and so we see the ability, we have additional capacity right now,” Young said.
“We are eager to step in to assist in what is going on globally, in whatever way we can. It’s not only on the LNG front, we were also a significant ammonia producer in Trinidad as well.
“Ammonia and methanol—and we have capacity there as well. So, as a gas producer who turns gas into both LNG as well as what we call pet-chems and ammonia, methanol, urea, UAN (fertiliser), we are ready to do what we can to assist with what we see as this crisis taking place.”
The minister said the onus was on other oil and gas countries like T&T to ramp up production and provide an alternative to Russia during this crisis.
Now, what are the facts?
T&T has four LNG Trains, but only three are in operation. It is well ventilated in this space that Train 1 is dead and the reason it is not operating and has been down for more than a year is because there is simply no natural gas for it.
You see, the Minister of Energy and everything else has spent so much time and energy trying to create an alternative reality of the Train 1 débâcle that he appears to now believe that it is operating and therefore goes on international television and tells the world something anyone can easily check on the internet and see it is nothing but a fabrication.
It is this same kind of make-belief, this smokescreen, that led to the disastrous decision to invest a quarter billion dollars of taxpayers’ money into saving Train 1, when the owners of 90 per cent of the plant were not interested in it and on the NGC betting against the reopening of plants on the Point Lisas Industrial Estate.
This now haunts us and has the Chairman of the National Gas Company suggesting it was never an investment but rather an issue of maintenance.
I am sure the minister must know, or at least his two Acting Permanent Secretaries could tell him, that natural gas production last year averaged 2.579 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d); compare this to 2019 when it was 3.5 bscf/d. Production is slightly up, closer to 3 bscf/d, but the fact is we can hardly meet our contractual arrangements for LNG and petrochemicals, and yet the minister tries to convince the world there is extra gas in T&T.
The minister must know that T&T has no share in Trains 2 and 3 and has no cargoes to sell from those trains, in Train 4 it has 11 per cent and Train 1 is dead. Even if it wanted to divert cargoes to Europe, it has a mere 5.5 per cent of total LNG production in the country.
It is nothing but trying to play smart with foolishness.
The minister must know that natural gas requires constant investment in the upstream to simply maintain production and in a mature province like T&T, it is a major challenge to, as the late Franklin Khan was fond of saying, walk up the downward escalator.
T&T has a natural gas challenge and unless we have access to Venezuelan gas or can bring on-stream deep-water and/or cross-border gas, we will not be in a position to increase production.
This notion that you can say what you believe and repeat it sufficiently and people will buy into it, was perfected by former US President Donald Trump.
It is a slippery slope, but many politicians see it as a way of being economic with the truth and getting away with it, even in the face of facts.
According to the Brookings Institution, Trump’s lies undermined public confidence in the former President and American government, increasing public cynicism.
“But these falsehoods, as bad as they are, are not as insidious as the repetition of false statements with important political and policy implications. Whether consciously intended or not, Trump’s policy and political lies can have a significant impact on public opinion, particularly with those who are favourably disposed toward him. Systematic research in psychology and political science has demonstrated that once “misinformation” is initially encoded in a person’s mind, it is very difficult to change perceptions through credible corrections. In fact, attempted corrections often reinforce the initial misinformation,” the institute wrote.
It went on to say that all of Trump’s lies that contradict commonly accepted facts challenge the fundamental principles of the enlightenment, which are premised on the belief that there are objective facts discoverable through investigation, empirical evidence, rationality and the scientific method.
It noted that from these premises, it follows that political discourse involves making logical arguments and adducing evidence in support of those arguments, rather than asserting one’s own self-serving version of reality. It reminded of the late US Senator Patrick Moynihan’s admonition that, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
“Trump’s refusal to attempt to refute charges that he was telling falsehoods, admit their inaccuracy, or attempt to wiggle out of them by equivocating demonstrates either his lack of touch with reality or his conviction that he does not have to explain himself to others. Insistence on his false statements is an assertion of power,” the institute ended.
Mr Young is no Donald Trump and while I am sure he wants T&T to punch above its weight and not its belt, he must also know that in doing so, there must be truth and facts. We must speak the truth.
I wish Mr Young was right and I did not have to write this column today, but the country deserves the facts.
Last weekend, I visited my mother’s house and, as happens often, the grandchildren met up to spend time with their “gramma.” Aria, who is four years old, told her mummy that uncle Curtis is a bit clumsy. She told her this in secret.
Her mother said if you want to tell Uncle Curtis something go ahead and tell him. She then told me she thought I was a bit clumsy.
It was a lesson about being brave enough to say what you feel and observe. It is the children like Aria who have to inherit a country, we owe it to them, to be honest with ourselves.
Aria and the children of her generation deserve no less.