Climate Change Editor
seigonie.mohammed
@guardian.co.tt
The Caribbean is being urged to prepare for a potentially severe drought and heat crisis stretching into 2027, placing water supplies, agriculture and public health under increasing pressure as a strengthening El Niño drives hotter, drier conditions across the region.
The warning from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) comes as regional leaders say ageing infrastructure, water losses and financial constraints could leave Caribbean states increasingly exposed to climate extremes.
For Trinidad and Tobago, the outlook is significant as CIMH forecasts indicate a broadening area of below-normal rainfall, accompanied by a significant increase in hot-spell days.
The institute said El Niño conditions in the Pacific strengthened rapidly from weak around May to moderate by July.
Forecasts point to very strong El Niño conditions between October and December 2026, persisting into the peak of the Caribbean Dry Season in March 2027.
“The combined effect of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation rates will likely translate into drought conditions over most of the Windwards, Leeward and ABC Islands,” CIMH warned.
Those conditions are expected to extend into early 2027 and expand across the Caribbean, with accumulated water deficits and wildfires becoming a greater concern in the early months of the year.
Professor Michael Taylor, co-director of UWI CSGM, described the developing situation as an “emerging climate disaster” combining heat, drought and marine extremes.
Unlike a hurricane, however, the impacts could accumulate over months.
At the media launch of the 35th Annual Caribbean Water and Wastewater Association (CWWA) Conference and Exhibition in Grenada last week, CWWA president Candice Santana noted that no Caribbean country can treat its water problems in isolation.
“Our countries may be separated by a sea, but our challenges are connected,” Santana said. “A drought affecting one island today might be affecting another tomorrow. A hurricane can erase decades of infrastructure investment in a matter of hours.”
Water systems under pressure
The question now confronting governments is whether Caribbean water systems are adequately prepared.
Across the region, utilities already contend with ageing infrastructure, water losses, financial constraints and the cost of maintaining and upgrading treatment, storage and distribution systems.
Hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall can intensify those pressures by increasing evaporation and demand while reducing the amount of water available to replenish supplies.
Santana said that reality requires a fundamental change in how the Caribbean values water.
“We can no longer ask how much does water cost but what is water worth?” she said.
“Water protects public health, water enables tourism, agriculture, industry and housing.”
For T&T, drought is therefore about more than whether households have water in their taps.
CIMH cautioned that reduced rainfall combined with elevated temperatures could result in agricultural losses without appropriate interventions, threatening food security and rural livelihoods.
Health risks could also increase through pressures on water quality and availability, vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses.
Tourism and energy systems could also come under strain as demand for cooling and freshwater increases.
At the same time, water lost from ageing or damaged distribution systems becomes even more consequential during periods of scarcity.
Every litre of treated water that fails to reach consumers represents not only a lost resource but wasted treatment and energy costs.
Santana said these are among the issues regional governments and utilities must confront.
Beryl’s financial lesson
Hurricane Beryl’s devastation in July 2024 showed how quickly a climate event can damage critical infrastructure and force governments and utilities into expensive recovery operations.
Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell, who also has responsibility for public utilities, described Carriacou and Petite Martinique as his country’s “two most water-vulnerable islands” and said Beryl created “an enormous solid waste management challenge.”
But the hurricane also provided a lesson in financial resilience.
Mitchell said Grenada’s National Water and Sewerage Authority (NAWASA) had contracted with the Caribbean Water Utility Insurance Collective only weeks before Beryl struck.
That decision, he said, allowed NAWASA to get an immediate injection of US$2.2 million cash, 14 days after Hurricane Beryl devastated Carriacou and the NAWASA infrastructure.
Beryl, however, taught Grenada a lesson that went beyond stronger pipes and physical infrastructure: climate resilience also depends on having money available when disaster strikes.
Mitchell summed it up simply, “With no resources, nothing happens.”
Scientists expect El Niño to be associated with a quieter Atlantic hurricane season, and its August outlook found evidence that the remainder of the 2026 season may see fewer storms than an average year.
But fewer storms do not mean the region is safe. A single major hurricane or intense rainfall event can still inflict severe loss and damage.
Caribbean governments are therefore being asked to prepare simultaneously for drought, extreme heat, intense rainfall and destructive storms while finding the money to strengthen infrastructure before disaster strikes.
A regional response
The cost of that adaptation has prompted calls for Caribbean states to cooperate more closely rather than approach common infrastructure challenges individually.
Mitchell said the region could pursue “joint and pool procurement” as well as joint project pipelines capable of facilitating financing at a larger scale.
Santana also wants CWWA, which was established by an Act of Parliament in Trinidad and Tobago in 1991, to become a stronger bridge between governments, utilities, expertise, technology and financing.
Those discussions will continue when ministers, utility executives, engineers, policymakers, investors and development partners gather in Grenada from October 12 to 16 for the CWWA conference.
But the scientific outlook means the region may have little room for another gathering that ends only with declarations.
