It is no longer business as usual since Nicolás Maduro’s arrest. Aside from Donald Trump demanding control of Greenland, Iran has been taken over by a protest movement that is the largest since the Iranian revolution in 1979. The end of the Iranian regime may be in sight, especially if the US and Israel decide to bomb.
We are now living in a different world, one where the US seems to be aggressively preparing for World War III with a 50 per cent increase in military spending planned for 2027.
Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, and this has been the cornerstone of the post-World War 2 international order. Despite this, militarism and breaches of Article 2(4) are the norm for nuclear-armed states: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel and Iran’s war and Trump’s aggressive international policy.
Maduro’s capture is possibly the most successful military operation in modern history; not one US soldier or aircraft was lost despite Venezuela possessing Russian and Chinese military hardware. As seen in the 1993 Mogadishu battle, determined low-tech fighters with AK47s and RPGs can shoot down US military helicopters, yet advances in US technology and training seem to have countered even this threat.
Rumours on Twitter (X) suggest that the US used some kind of sonic weapon on several Venezuelan soldiers that rendered them unconscious instantly. These rumours are credible, as sonic weapons have been used against US diplomats, causing “Havana syndrome” in the past; the technology does exist.
Rumours on T&T social media that the attack was launched from Trinidad are unfounded. The distance from Caracas to Piarco is roughly 600 kilometres. The US had a supercarrier and a helicopter carrier in closer proximity to Maduro.
This event has forced a reevaluation of the global chessboard. The US has proven that it will have no problem penetrating air defences and landing troops on enemy territory. This means that they will be able to land on Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion and possibly even penetrate Chinese airspace to take out military targets.
The possible fall of Iran takes away a critical Russian and Chinese ally. In late 2025, Iran surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest oil exporter to China, and Russia used Iranian Shahed drones to bomb Ukraine. The loss of both Venezuela and Iran as allies to Russia and China will ultimately increase diplomatic tensions between the US and the China-Russia alliance, albeit while increasing US power.
Politically, despite Trump’s past behaviour, the chances of a Republican taking the White House in 2028 have risen. This assessment isn’t based on gut feelings but on the most advanced betting market in the world, Polymarket. Polymarket successfully predicted the Trump presidency in 2024 and is predicting a 28 per cent chance of JD Vance as president. Marco Rubio’s chances of becoming president have risen since the arrest of Maduro from as low as 2.5 per cent last year to a high of nine per cent as of January 5, 2025.
Democrat favourites like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom experienced slight drops in their chances, from a high of 23 per cent for Newsom down to lows of 18 per cent and highs of 11 per cent for Cortez down to eight per cent.
Marco Rubio has an extremely high approval rating and was the first Latino Secretary of State in US history. If it were not for the MAGA activists such as Erika Kirk anointing JD Vance as their preferred candidate, Rubio’s popularity would have made him the obvious choice to lead the Republican party as the presidential candidate for 2028.
A Vance/Rubio ticket may attract enough Latino support to win the 2028 election, and this is something Trinidad and Tobago and other small countries need to keep in mind. There may be no going back to business as usual.
Even if the Democrats take the White House in 2028, a Rubio presidency is still possible in 2032, and while the Democrats decry war, they are unlikely to give up any power that Trump’s aggression has built for the US.
For non-nuclear armed states like T&T, the best policy may be allying ourselves with the US. While the radar installed in Tobago caused much controversy, it has cemented T&T’s status as one of the few ardent supporters of the US in Caricom, along with Guyana.
If we did not support the US interventions in the region, we ran the risk of increased tariffs and other measures that would have harmed our economy.
It is in T&T’s best interest to keep supporting US policy. Even if World War III breaks out and China somehow wins, the US will remain the dominant power in our region. Both our closest neighbours, Venezuela and Grenada, have had US military interventions, with Grenada being taken over by only 7,300 US troops back in 1983.
The post-Maduro world order will be one of every nation seeking its own self-interest. The distant prospect of Dragon Gas aside, it is in T&T’s best interest to remain aligned with the US.
