Tomorrow will bring the first leg of the Trinidad Triple Crown, the Guineas (traditionally run at Easter) and the second leg of the British Triple Crown, the Epsom Derby for colts and Oaks for fillies. Both events are somewhat disappointing for different reasons but there must be a winner and we will review the two events to identify possible winners.
The Trinidad Guineas takes place tomorrow and just five horses are expected to face the starter. Injury has robbed the event of the best three-year-olds seen to date, Headlines Again and El Rey Sanjay. Punters can only hope that both horses are able to return to the track later in the year to increase both the quality and competitiveness of the classic races and races in general.
In their absence, the five horses who have paid the final subscriptions for the Guineas are two maiden winners in Uncle Rog and Red Alert and three maidens, Capital Tee, Secret Pages and Unbelievable. The favourite is likely to be Uncle Rog who won the Chief Commander Stakes on the turf and has been runner-up to El Rey Sanjay in two of his other four starts all on the dirt. The only question mark over this colt is whether he is as good on the dirt as he is on the turf, though he may not need to be to win this event.
The other winner in the event, Red Alert, also won her maiden on the turf but has been placed in five of her other six races. She was runner-up to Uncle Rog in the Chief Commander and this daughter of Signal Alert/Saint Honey is bred to be versatile. When she won her maiden over 1,100 metres on the turf, Secret Pages was third, Unbelievable fourth and Capital Tee, sixth. She is speedy and if she gets loose on the lead, might be hard to peg back.
Of the three maidens, Secret Pages and Unbelievable have shown some ability but neither has been higher than third in their contested races to date. Secret Pages races like a horse that would appreciate a distance of ground appearing slightly one-paced at the end of her races but giving the impression that she was still doing her best work late. She has one-third, one-fourth and two-fifths in her four starts. Unbelievable showed a lot of promise in his first start when third but has not progressed in his next four starts. The race could see the five finishers spread out across the Santa Rosa track since none have shown their ability to get the 1,800-metre distance on the dirt. That could also result in an upset. In a difficult race to call, the logical choice is Uncle Rog but at longer odds, Secret Pages trained by the wily Glenn Mendez might be best prepared to stay the distance.
Tomorrow as well, the Betfred Oaks will take place at Epsom Downs. A very competitive field is expected to face the starter with a full field of 20 horses likely to participate. The size of the field is indicative of how open the year has been with no standout performer from the 1000 Guineas or any of the Oaks Trials run to date. The favourite is 1000 Guineas fifth, YlangYlang, a daughter of the great Frankel who is a strong influence for stamina as a sire. This filly was staying on strongly in the Guineas and would be following a path charted by prior Oakswinners such as Reams of Verse and Minding.
Next in the betting is her stable companion, Rubies are Red, who is still a maiden after three starts but was a real eyecatcher when staying on strongly from the rear to be second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. She got well behind that day and if she does something similar tomorrow, her chances of victory will be impaired. The choice of stable jockey Ryan Moore will have a huge bearing on which filly goes off favourite on the day.
The main threat to the O’Brien duo is the Aga Khan’s Ezeliya, trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld. She was a ready winner of one of the minor trials for the Oaks but punters clearly expect a lot more in the Classic itself. The winners of the various Oaks trials in England, Secret Satire (Musidora), Forest Fairy (Cheshire Oaks) and You Got to Me (Lingfield Oaks) have not generated much support in the antepost market and as such, appear somewhat limited in terms of their scope. Frankel sired the winner of the 2023 Oaks in the Gosdens trained Soul Sister and he might repeat the feat with his daughter, Ylang Ylang.
The Betfred Derby will take place the following day at Epsom Downs. In a possible indication of the absence of any real three-year-old distance star (so far), the surprising favourite for the event was the once-hailed wonder horse, City of Troy. This colt was hailed as the next coming of the great Frankel by his always sire-building connections in 2023.
Unfortunately for them, he completely bombed out in the 2000 Guineas thus dashing such comparisons forever. Punters have retained the faith, albeit a lukewarm one, that his connections can do another Auguste Rodin – bombed out in the 2023 Guineas but returned to win the Derby – in 2024. It is not impossible. One by one his main rivals have been struck down by injury – two of them (Hidden Law and Arabian Crown) were actually trained by Charlie Appleby who won the Guineas for Godolphin.
Appleby still has Ancient Wisdom in the race but prior to the injury that took Arabian Crown out of the Derby, Appleby was unequivocal as to where both horses stood in terms of relative ability. The horse most punters expect to challenge City of Troy is not yet entered in the race and connections are dithering as to whether they will at the final entry stage. That horse, Economics, was a mightily impressive winner of the leading Derby trial, the Dante Stakes at York. However, he was withdrawn from the Derby prior to the race, a possible sign that his connections thought he would not be ready for the event. Their surprise at this Dante victory was palpable. The victory was however too impressive to be ignored and if he starts, he will give the favourite a serious test, if he doesn’t go off as favourite himself.
In a wide-open betting race, Aidan O’Brien has two other challengers, Los Angeles and Diego Velazquez, who could go both well with the latter being another son of Frankel, who ran a pleasing Derby trial when staying on fourth in the French Guineas. It is rumoured that he is being aimed at the French Derby, but should he be re-routed, he could shake things up for his better-fancied rivals. Other horses, who are not without a chance, are French Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini (he is not bred to stay as a son of Camelot out of an Australian dam) and Classic Trial runner-up Macduff. The Derby is quite open which will make for a very absorbing contest. If Economics starts, he would be the one to support while in his absence, I hope Diego Velazquez is re-routed.
