Proposed moves by the United States to exert long-term control over Venezuela’s oil production and sales could have wide-ranging implications for global energy markets, the Caribbean and regional oil-producing states such as Guyana, according to international relations specialist Dr Mark Kirton.
Speaking as Washington signalled a dramatic shift in its Venezuela policy, Kirton assessed the potential knock-on effects for regional economies already grappling with energy insecurity, fragmented supply arrangements and the absence of PetroCaribe, which was a regional oil procurement agreement between Venezuela and Caribbean member states.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated yesterday that Washington intends to oversee the sale of Venezuelan oil production “indefinitely.”
He told a Goldman Sachs energy conference near Miami that the United States would sell oil produced in Venezuela directly into the global market.
The comments followed a statement by US President Donald Trump that Venezuela would soon hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the US, with Washington controlling the profits from the sales.
If implemented, the plan would reverse years of US sanctions and restrictions imposed since 2019, which sharply curtailed Venezuela’s oil exports and revenue flows.
However, questions remain about the legal authority underpinning the proposal, with energy experts describing the initiative as speculative and largely based on expressions of intent.
Against that backdrop, Kirton warned that a US-backed revitalisation of Venezuela’s oil industry could introduce new pressures in the global market. He pointed to the risk of oversupply in the medium term, which could push prices downward.
That scenario, he argued, would have a dual impact.
Lower oil prices could ease costs for energy-importing countries, but they would also reduce returns for oil-producing states. Guyana, which has rapidly emerged as a major offshore producer, could see diminished financial gains from its recent discoveries if global prices soften.
Beyond price effects, Kirton highlighted the strategic consequences for the Caribbean, particularly given the collapse of PetroCaribe, the Venezuelan initiative that once provided concessional energy supplies to several Caribbean states.
Many Eastern Caribbean countries, he noted, had relied heavily on PetroCaribe arrangements to meet their energy needs.
In the absence of that framework, a resurgence of Venezuelan oil exports directed primarily towards the United States could leave Caribbean states scrambling for alternative supplies in the short term, potentially intensifying economic pressures as governments are forced to source fuel at market rates.
Kirton suggested that the current moment could also present opportunities. With Guyana already producing oil and Suriname expected to join the ranks of producers within the next year, he argued that Caricom should consider a regionally driven energy arrangement.
He proposed the concept of a “PetroCaricom”, under which oil from Guyana and Suriname could be strategically allocated within the region, supported by refinery infrastructure in T&T that would require retrofitting. Such an approach, he said, could help restore a more unified Caricom energy policy while strengthening regional energy security.
The renewed US interest in Venezuelan oil also raises questions about the region’s future access to energy supplies, particularly if US demand absorbs a significant share of Venezuelan output.
Kirton underscored the need for Caribbean governments to think beyond traditional arrangements and explore alternative supply options, including a redesigned regional energy security mechanism.
