Raphael John-Lall
Former Central Bank governor, Winston Dookeran, who also served as Minister of Finance foresees that the rapidly changing geo-political environment will influence the direction that the new Government takes in relation to the economy as well as foreign policy.
In an interview with the Business Guardian, Dookeran made this point and also shared that he co-authored an article with Mikhail Byng, who is a Ph.D candidate at the Insitute of International Relations of the University of the West Indies (UWI). It was published in the Spring edition of the European based magazine, Horizons, which focuses on economic development globally.
“The global shifts will challenge the new Government, I hope this scholarship helps it to navigate the path ahead, for the Caribbean,” he said.
Referring to the article, Dookeran said the focus was to articulate for T&T, and the wider Caricom region, a strategic shift away from the historically established orientation of non-alignment to one of multi-alignment. He said the articulation of this perspective is partly a reflection of the long-debated notion that the world is shifting from unipolarity to a new distribution of power.
The biggest question when engaging with foreign state and non-state actors is how T&T can benefit economically, over the short, medium, and long term, said Dookeran.
“This calculation is not zero-sum. Rather, it is a positive-sum reality in which T&T offers to its interlocutors abroad a myriad of opportunities across the spectrum of resources it possesses: human, natural, and economic, among others. One primary example of an opportunity area for engagement with T&T is human capital,” he said.
He added that assessing the human capital of T&T is critical, as this is arguably the primary source of any nation’s true power.
“The capacity to mobilise economic activity, govern and operate the institutions of state, and devise and implement policies for the efficient operations of both private and public sector institutions are only a few examples of the integral significance of a country’s human resources.”
Diversification
He argued that with a population of 1.4 million people and a diaspora of approximately 360,000, the country must access the full capacity of T&T nationals living outside the country in order to move away from overreliance on oil and gas.
“This diaspora, representing 25 percent of the population living in the country, is underutilised. A brief illustration of this is remittances. Historically, remittances have not been an integral part of T&T’s economic model. Natural resources in oil and natural gas provided sufficient foreign currency to the country and created an expanded social welfare state, which is unparalleled regionally. This is no longer a reliable option, as T&T’s oil and gas reserves are depleting, and the new possibilities in this area are fraught with geopolitical uncertainty outside the control of national decision-makers.”
Furthermore, he pointed out that global energy transitions away from fossil fuels will likely diminish the value of this sector over the long term.
“Therefore, creating as many avenues for foreign-based nationals to return funds home via low-cost, accessible, and modern means—such as cash apps—is just one example of a low-cost but high-impact opportunity with the potential to increase local economic activity in the short-term. Furthermore, incentivising investment into local markets by members of the diaspora will be critical. This will require closer coordination with US counterparts in the area of security to combat fraud and potential misuse.”
He spoke about the role of the United States in helping T&T’s development.
“T&T’s interests lean strongly in the direction of the United States. Geographic proximity to the United States, strong sociocultural ties, and a fluid trade corridor between the country and wider Caricom region makes such a calculation relatively simple. Therefore, in the short term, we propose anchoring on this relationship.”
Furthermore, Dookeran said moving from the short to medium term, a strong relationship with the United States will likely provide T&T with the ability to navigate the increasingly choppy waters of the current period.
“In the quest for a stable and peaceful international order, while preserving strategic autonomy, small states will be on a constant search for strategic opportunities. Perhaps the strategic logic of our times will see the advent of “floating coalitions,” in response to countries hedging in this fluid geopolitical climate.”
Border control
Given T&T’s porous borders and the current regional and international climate involving the movement of migrants, in the article, Dookeran recommended that T&T look to emerging powers to provide it with technology to protect itself.
“In the area of technology, some emerging powers are playing an increasingly pivotal role in moving progress forward. For example, unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned surface vehicles are becoming increasingly important in warfare and border security. T&T’s extensive maritime borders can benefit in this regard. These countries possess low-cost but high-impact opportunities, alongside a willingness to engage with the Caricom region.”
He further noted, the presence of high-level Emirati and Saudi Arabia representatives at the 48th meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government in Barbados in February 2025 is indicative of the high regard placed on this relationship and T&T is well poised to lead this engagement further.
Dookeran pointed out that the same can be said regarding the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) within the current technological revolution.
“AI is likely to transform almost every facet of life, emphasising its importance to human progress. Engaging this new advancement presents an opportunity for unprecedented development in T&T and Caricom, with emerging and traditional powers playing important roles in this field.”
Global transition
Dookeran argued that the world is in transition from one in which one superpower dominates to one where the power structure is shared among different global players.
“We contend, however, that the current global landscape is one which may be characterised neither as unipolar nor multipolar, but in transition between these two definite points. This systemic reality does not necessarily determine outcomes: rather, it provides environmental constraints and incentives. In practice, these constraints and incentives only increase the likelihood for particular outcomes probabilistically, not deterministically. This means that even in a multipolar world or a nonpower world, T&T’s geographic location affects its decision-making, given its relative power imbalance with regard to its neighbours in North and South America.”
He said this opens the possibility for countries with relatively low latent military potential to be considered as key strategic players internationally. Still, having some capacity does matter, and T&T’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands at approximately $27 billion, or 111th in the world: roughly on par with countries like Armenia, Albania, Cyprus, Georgia and Malta.
Additionally, Dookeran said T&T’s strategic placement and responsibility for security within the Caribbean regional framework affords a number of benefits. For example, it is the location of most regional collective security agencies and bodies.
Within the CARICOM framework, “T&T functions as the country responsible for security within the regional quasi-cabinet. This status puts even further emphasis on the necessity of possessing and advocating—first on the national and then on the regional level—a coherent strategy that clearly indicates the region’s alignment preferences. Even so, nothing contributes more to a strong strategic posture than a strong and stable domestic footing, which is the cornerstone of any future policy.”
