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Monday, July 14, 2025

Population growth in Latin America and Caribbean falls below expectations

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226 days ago
20241129

The Eco­nom­ic Com­mis­sion for Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean (ECLAC)  says the pop­u­la­tion in the re­gion reached 663 mil­lion this year, near­ly four per cent less than what had been fore­cast in 2000.

ECLAC has re­leased its 2024 De­mo­graph­ic Ob­ser­va­to­ry re­port, which ex­am­ines the ac­cel­er­a­tion of de­mo­graph­ic changes in the first quar­ter of the 21st cen­tu­ry in the re­gion, along with the im­pli­ca­tions of age­ing for the labour force and care.

It said in 2024, Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean’s pop­u­la­tion reached 663 mil­lion peo­ple, 3.8 per cent less than what had been fore­cast in the year 2000, when es­ti­mates point­ed to a to­tal of 689 mil­lion peo­ple.

“At that time, it was es­ti­mat­ed that fer­til­i­ty and mor­tal­i­ty rates in Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean would be high­er than what was ef­fec­tive­ly record­ed be­tween 2000 and 2023, con­sid­er­ing trends from the pre­vi­ous decade and what oc­curred in oth­er re­gions of the world. “Al­so, these ini­tial pro­jec­tions did not an­tic­i­pate the in­creased vol­ume of mi­gra­tion flows in re­cent years or the sig­nif­i­cant de­mo­graph­ic changes seen dur­ing the COVID-19 pan­dem­ic,” ECLAC said.

Ac­cord­ing to the 2024 De­mo­graph­ic Ob­ser­va­to­ry Pop­u­la­tion Prospects and Rapid De­mo­graph­ic Changes in the First Quar­ter of the 21st Cen­tu­ry in Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean, cur­rent­ly, the re­gion’s pop­u­la­tion is pro­ject­ed to peak at ap­prox­i­mate­ly 730 mil­lion in 2053.

The doc­u­ment, pre­pared by the Latin Amer­i­can and Caribbean De­mo­graph­ic Cen­ter (CELADE)-Pop­u­la­tion Di­vi­sion of ECLAC, em­pha­sizes that the growth rate of the re­gion’s pop­u­la­tion is ever low­er.

In the 1960s, an­nu­al growth rates topped 2.5 per cent. How­ev­er, start­ing in the mid­dle of that decade, a de­creas­ing trend be­gan, due es­pe­cial­ly to de­clin­ing fer­til­i­ty. Al­though the 2000 re­vi­sion fore­saw that this down­ward trend would con­tin­ue, the 2024 da­ta shows that, in ac­tu­al­i­ty, the de­cline was faster than an­tic­i­pat­ed.

“This ac­cel­er­at­ed de­mo­graph­ic tran­si­tion has prompt­ed ma­jor shifts in the age struc­ture of the re­gion’s pop­u­la­tion. In 1950, around 41 per cent of the pop­u­la­tion was un­der 15 years of age; to­day, that pro­por­tion has fall­en to 22.5 per cent.

“At the same time, the adult pop­u­la­tion be­tween 15 and 64 years of age went from ac­count­ing for 55.6 per cent of the to­tal pop­u­la­tion in 1950 to rep­re­sent­ing 67.6 per cent in 2024. It is fore­cast that in 2050, around 18.9 per cent of the re­gion’s pop­u­la­tion will be made up of peo­ple over 65 – ap­prox­i­mate­ly dou­ble the pro­por­tion ob­served in 2024 (9.9 per cent).

“This will mean an in­crease from the 65.4 mil­lion peo­ple over 65 years of age in 2024 to an es­ti­mat­ed 138.0 mil­lion in 2050, “ ECLAC said..

The 2024 De­mo­graph­ic Ob­ser­va­to­ry stress­es that the rapid de­mo­graph­ic shift that has been ob­served in Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean presents chal­lenges and op­por­tu­ni­ties for the re­gion in the con­text of ac­cel­er­at­ed pop­u­la­tion age­ing, with a sig­nif­i­cant in­crease in the pop­u­la­tion’s me­di­an age.

In 1950, the re­port in­di­cates, the me­di­an age of Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean’s pop­u­la­tion was 18; by 2024, that val­ue had risen to 31 years of age; and by 2050, it is fore­cast that the me­di­an age will be ap­prox­i­mate­ly 40.

“The birth rate has de­clined more quick­ly than what was ex­pect­ed at the start of the cen­tu­ry, and nei­ther the rise in mor­tal­i­ty due to COVID-19, nor the in­crease in mi­gra­tion flows, was fore­seen at that time,” said ECLAC’s  ex­ec­u­tive sec­re­tary, José Manuel Salazar-Xiri­nachs.

“We at ECLAC call for pro­mot­ing the pop­u­la­tion’s healthy age­ing and of­fer­ing every­one, es­pe­cial­ly low­er-in­come groups, ac­cess to health­care and so­cial pro­tec­tion sys­tems that would re­duce the im­pact of greater de­mand for care on fam­i­lies,” he added.

ECLAC said that the change in the pop­u­la­tion’s age struc­ture and the per­sis­tent de­cline in fer­til­i­ty to be­low-re­place­ment lev­els pose ad­di­tion­al chal­lenges to those al­ready ex­ist­ing in Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean in terms of so­cioe­co­nom­ic in­equal­i­ty and ac­cess to state-pro­vid­ed goods and ser­vices.

It said age­ing has an im­pact in all ar­eas of pub­lic pol­i­cy and, in par­tic­u­lar, en­tails an in­crease in de­mand for long-term care ser­vices, which pos­es chal­lenges but al­so op­por­tu­ni­ties.

Salazar-Xiri­nachs said it is cru­cial that the sit­u­a­tion of women be giv­en spe­cial con­sid­er­a­tion, since they are gen­er­al­ly the ones who ab­sorb the work of car­ing for chil­dren and old­er per­sons with­in fam­i­lies.

SAN­TI­A­GO, Chile, Nov 29, CMC –

CMC/ak/ir/2024

Caribbean ECLACInstagramRegional


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